In this bulletin:

• Energy Shortage Key Hurdle To Afghanistan's Development: IMF
• Bread price hike affects millions
• Afghans can crush opium in six years if Nato helps
• Afghan president congratulates Bhutto party leader
• Japan resumes anti-terrorism refuelling operations in Indian Ocean
• Kyrgyzstan to raise issue of US base's withdrawal – president
• Text of Canada Government Motion on mission to Afghanistan
• Canadians to quit Afghanistan
• Hillier asks for strong parliamentary support for Afghan mission
• Prime Minister bows to Liberal demands on withdrawal date
• Afghan plan carved in paper
• Over 30 Taliban killed in operation: Afghan ministry
• Kandahar city governor parades bombing suspects at palace
• German paper expects enlargement of Bundeswehr contingent in Afghanistan
• NATO: Suicide Bombs Used As Propaganda
• Journalists under Constant Threat in Afghanistan
• SBS swoop to kill Taliban chief
• Afghan police seize weapons, ammunition in Kabul
• NATO winning battles, losing Afghanistan
• Pakistan Shift Could Curtail Drone Strikes
• Asfandyar urges foreign aid to keep extremists on run
• ANP chief says deprivation forces people to militancy
• A Milestone on the Road to Democracy
• Iranian journalist says Muslims interested in joining ‘global mainstream of democratization’
• Afghan health sector on the mend, says US surgeon

Energy Shortage Key Hurdle To Afghanistan's Development: IMF

World Bank Group 02/21/2008

“An energy shortage in Afghanistan is fuelling investor concerns aside from the volatile security situation compounded by a flourishing drug trade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Wednesday. …

The IMF [mission chief for Afghanistan, Mohamad] Elhage welcomed the Afghanistan government's intention to link subsidy disbursements to the state-owned electricity company to concrete reform benchmarks. This, he said, should help modernize the sector and boost electricity supply. The IMF report noted that no new Afghan exports outside the ‘traditional base’ that included carpets, minerals, and horticulture products, had been developed, citing low capacity, the high cost of capital, and lack of electricity. …” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]

Reuters notes that “A thriving Afghan opium crop earned farmers about $1 billion in 2007 and together with resurgence in violence was hampering economic development, the IMF said on Wednesday. …Still, Elhage praised the Afghan government for a strong performance under a three-year IMF-supported economic program. …Elhage said revenue performance had doubled as a percentage of GDP and strengthened the fiscal situation, while private banking was expanding. …” [Reuters/Factiva]

Dow Jones adds that “…However, the deteriorating security situation remains a threat to foreign investment and fiscal improvement, said Elhage. …

The IMF expects Afghanistan's economy to rebound to 13.5 percent in the 2008 fiscal year ending March 19 as the agricultural sector recovers from a drought that helped slow 2007 growth to an estimated 6.1 percent pace. …In its review, the IMF said the country must continue on the route toward fiscal sustainability given its reliance on foreign aid, as well as accelerate structural reforms. …” [Dow Jones/Factiva]

AFX reports that “[t]he IMF…report … said economic growth over the medium term will depend critically on confronting governance issues, overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks (particularly in the electricity sector), and implementing structural reforms in support of private sector activities. …

Revenue mobilization requires further efforts aimed at capacity building and introduction of a broad-based consumption tax, while maintaining a transparent and equitable trade regime and the role of capital notes should be expanded to better manage liquidity and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, the IMF said. …”

Bread price hike affects millions

IRIN, 02/21/2008 - KABUL - A sharp rise in the price of bread over the past three months is affecting the lives of millions of impoverished Afghans. Unleavened bread is a staple of the Afghan diet, with the average person consuming at least two oval-shaped flatbreads per day.

"The price is too high. There are nine people in my family," Sardar Jan, a 40-year-old carpenter, told IRIN in Kabul. "I need 15 loaves a day (for my family). How can we afford this?" asked Ghulum Dawood, 56, another Kabul resident.

And while business at one of the busier bakeries along Kabul's Kolola Pushta Street remained brisk, selling about 2,500 loaves daily, even the proprietor had noticed a difference: "Business is good, but I know some people are having trouble," Baryalai Ghafory said.

"I receive four `naans' (flatbreads) free of charge from the baker a day," 65-year-old Amina, one of 300,000 widows in Kabul said. "Thank God for their generosity."

A large number of Kabul residents have resorted to buying flour and baking bread at home to cut down on costs. Living on one dollar a day now more difficult

Since November 2007, the price of bread in Afghanistan has risen from 11 US cents to 21 US cents, an increase of over 90 percent. Though more or less in line with global wheat price increases in the same period, that is a significant jump for Afghanistan where over half the country's 25 million inhabitants survive on less than $1 a day, according to Afghanistan's National Human Development Report for 2007.

Such price hikes increase the risk of food insecurity, hunger and vulnerability to other shocks, according to a January 2008 appeal by the UN and the Afghan government.

At least 1.4 million people in rural areas and 1.14 million in urban areas have been pushed into high-risk food insecurity, the UN says.

A family of seven can earn around $1.14 a day in Kabul, if the head of the family is fortunate enough to have a job. It would need $0.63 to buy 21 loaves of bread. In many cases over 60 percent of a family's income is now being spent on bread alone, the appeal said.

Regional disparities - According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), from January 2007 to January 2008, the price of wheat nationwide increased by 67.3 percent.

In southern and central regions, wheat flour prices rose by 71.4 and 79.4 percent over the last year, while in the east, primarily due to the prices in Nooristan Province, that figure increased by over 143 percent, according to MAIL.

Pakistan, suffering from its own shortage of wheat flour, recently banned flour exports to Afghanistan, exacerbating the situation.

The Afghan government has limited capacity to import wheat or wheat flour and does not maintain grain reserves that might be used to help offset higher prices.

On 17 January, the UN World Food Programme launched an appeal for 89,000 metric tonnes of food (wheat, pulses, cooking oil and iodized salt) to assist over 2.5 million Afghans.

Afghans can crush opium in six years if Nato helps

The Scotsman 22 Feb 08 - By Jerome Starkey

AFGHANISTAN could be poppy-free in just six years, the government's drugs czar claimed yesterday – but only if Nato risks more soldiers' lives to support eradication efforts.

Poppy cultivation has more than doubled since 2001, when Britain took responsibility for trying to eradicate the crop. But so far Nato has refused to commit ground troops to support dangerous eradication missions.

General Khodaidad, the counter-narcotics minister, said: "Six years would be the earliest to get Afghanistan completely poppy-free. But we need more help.

"Politically, it is very important that Nato is supporting the Afghan eradication force, especially in the provinces where there is violence."

His comments come amid ongoing Nato strains over the role of each country's troops inside Afghanistan. US General Dan McNeill, the commander of the Nato-led

International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), promised to push his mandate "to the limit" this year, to target drugs smugglers linked to the Taleban. But technically the coalition's remit does not cover drug-eradication operations.

To date, only small bands of Special Forces have helped Afghan commandos target drug lords and heroin factories in Helmand province.

Britain has 7,800 soldiers in the country, mostly based in Helmand, where poppy cultivation soared 48 per cent last year.

UK commanders are reluctant to support or encourage eradication missions because they are afraid of driving the farmers into the arms of the insurgents.

Gen Khodaidad, an experienced military commander, said ISAF had agreed to provide air support, logistics, and medical evacuation helicopters, but he said they refused to put soldiers on the ground to protect the Afghan eradication teams.

Afghan president congratulates Bhutto party leader

Text of report by Dubai-based Geo TV News website on 21 February

Islamabad 21 February: Afghanistan president Hamed Karzai has congratulated co-chairman of the Pakistan People's Party, Asif Ali Zardari, on obtaining majority in the elections.

According to the Party sources, the president of Afghanistan, Hamed Karzai telephoned the co-chairman, Asif Ali Zardari and congratulated him.

He said that whichever the government would be formed in Pakistan the Afghan government would work with it for peace and security of the region.

France to hold Afghanistan aid conference in June

Focus Information Agency – 22 Feb 08

Slovenia. France will host an international conference on development aid for Afghanistan in late June to reiterate EU's support, an EU official said.

"The Paris conference, in late June, should provide an opportunity for us to reiterate our support (to Afghanistan) and review half way the process that started in London," EU special representative to the country Francesc Vendrell said during a meeting of the EU Troika, as cited by AFP.

Berlin hosted the last development aid conference for Afghanistan in January 2007 to follow up on a meeting the previous year in London when a five-year reconstruction plan was launched.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced last month the organization of a new conference without giving a date. France has about 1,600 troops serving in Afghanistan in a 60,000-strong NATO-led force battling the Taliban-led insurgency. They are also providing training for Afghanistan's security forces.

Japan resumes anti-terrorism refuelling operations in Indian Ocean

Text of report in English by Japan's largest news agency Kyodo

Aboard The Oumi, Arabian Sea, Feb. 21 Kyodo - Japan resumed Thursday its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of US-led antiterrorism operations following a nearly four-month hiatus, with a Maritime Self-Defence Force ship providing fuel to a Pakistani destroyer.

The resumption of the maritime mission, which the government has described as "a promise to the international community," came as the MSDF is under fire at home over a collision between an MSDF high-tech Aegis destroyer and a fishing boat, which has left two fishermen missing.

In Tokyo, Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura stressed that the mission is in line with Japan's national interests and is welcomed by the international community.

"The Self-Defence Forces have faced various criticisms recently, but I expect them to engage in the activities with pride and confidence to accomplish the purpose (of the mission)," the top government spokesman told a press conference.

The 13,500-ton fleet support ship Oumi, which provided fuel to the Pakistani vessel, left Japan in late January under the escort of the 4,550-ton destroyer Murasame. About 340 crew members on the two ships are engaged in the mission.

The Oumi is also expected to refuel vessels from the United States, Britain, Canada, France and Germany that are participating in the interdiction of ships suspected of links to terrorism in and around Afghanistan, under a five-month programme through June, Japanese government officials said.

Japan supplied a total of 490,000 kiloliters of fuel to ships from 11 countries free of charge on 794 occasions between December 2001 and November 2007.

The MSDF withdrew from the mission last November as the special law authorizing it expired amid objections from opposition parties, which control the upper house of Japan's bicameral parliament.

But the two MSDF ships left Japan for the Indian Ocean under a new special law enac! ted last month.

Kyrgyzstan to raise issue of US base's withdrawal – president

Excerpt from report by privately-owned Kyrgyz AKIpress news agency website

Bishkek, 21 February: The Kyrgyz authorities are planning to raise the issue of the US air base's withdrawal from the country, which is stationed at Manas airport near Bishkek, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has said in an interview with the RIA Novosti news agency and with the Russia Today TV channel.

As is known, the US air base was stationed in Kyrgyzstan in 2001, when the USA was conducting a large-scale operation in Afghanistan. Therefore, Bakiyev noted that "a number of unprofitable points for Kyrgyzstan were permitted" while adopting the decision on the stationing of the base. "We have already been busy with the issues over two years. And I should say that Americans have met us halfway as regards increasing a rental fee. That is, currently, this base is economically bringing certain benefits to Kyrgyzstan," the country's president stressed.

He also believes that despite changes in the situation in Afghanistan, where "currently, there are no s! trong military actions, artillery, aviation and so forth," the country remains unstable. "However, the situation itself is not stable to say `we can do without you'," Bakiyev noted. At the same time, he recalled that Afghan drugs were being smuggled through Kyrgyzstan.

Anyway, Bakiyev thinks that the Kyrgyz authorities view the US air base as a "temporary factor". "My stance as the head of state, and the majority of our population have a similar stance on the issue: it is a temporary factor anyway. We will raise a question of its withdrawal. This is unambiguous," the president concluded.

Text of Canada Government Motion on mission to Afghanistan

That, whereas,

this House recognizes the important contribution and sacrifice of Canadian Forces and Canadian civilian personnel as part of the UN mandated, NATO-led mission deployed in Afghanistan at the request of the democratically elected government of Afghanistan;

this House believes that Canada must remain committed to the people of Afghanistan beyond February 2009;

this House takes note that in February 2002, the government took a decision to deploy 850 troops to Kandahar to join the international coalition that went to Afghanistan to drive out the Taliban in the wake of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and that this deployment lasted for six months at which time the troops rotated out of Afghanistan and returned home;

this House takes note that in February 2003 the government took a decision that Canada would commit 2000 troops and lead for one year, starting in the summer of 2003, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Kabul and at the end of the one-year commitment, Canada's 2000 troop commitment was reduced to a 750-person reconnaissance unit as Canada's NATO ally, Turkey, rotated into Kabul to replace Canada as the lead nation of the ISAF mission;

this House takes note that in August 2005, Canada assumed responsibility of the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kandahar province which included roughly 300 Canadian Forces personnel;

this House takes note that the government took a decision to commit a combat Battle Group of roughly 1200 troops to Kandahar for a period of one year, from February 2006 to February 2007;

this House takes note that in January 2006, the government participated in the London Conference on Afghanistan which resulted in the signing of the Afghanistan Compact which set out benchmarks and timelines until the end of 2010 for improving the security, the governance and the economic and social development of Afghanistan;

this House takes note that in May 2006, Parliament supported the government's two year extension of Canada's deployment of diplomatic, development, civilian police and military personnel in Afghanistan and the provision of funding and equipment for this extension;

this House welcomes the Report of the Independent Panel on Canada's Future Role in Afghanistan, chaired by the Honourable John Manley, and recognizes the important contribution its members have made;

this House takes note that it has long been a guiding principle of Canada's involvement in Afghanistan that all three components of a comprehensive government strategy - defence, diplomacy and development - must reinforce each other and that the government must strike a balance between these components to be most effective;

this House takes note that the ultimate aim of Canadian policy is to leave Afghanistan to Afghans, in a country that is better governed, more peaceful and more secure and to create the necessary space and conditions to allow the Afghans themselves to achieve a political solution to the conflict; and

this House takes note that in order to achieve that aim, it is essential to assist the people of Afghanistan to have properly trained, equipped and paid members of the four pillars of their security apparatus: the army, the police, the judicial system and the corrections system;

therefore,

it is the opinion of this House that Canada should continue a military presence in Kandahar beyond February 2009, to July 2011, in a manner fully consistent with the UN mandate on Afghanistan, and that the military mission shall consist of:

(a) training the Afghan National Security Forces so that they can expeditiously take increasing responsibility for security in Kandahar and Afghanistan as a whole;

(b) providing security for reconstruction and development efforts in Kandahar; and

(c) the continuation of Canada's responsibility for the Kandahar Provincial Reconstruction Team;

And it is the opinion of this House that, consistent with this mandate, this extension of Canada's military presence in Afghanistan is approved by this House expressly on the condition that:

(a) NATO secure a battle group of approximately 1000 to rotate into Kandahar (operational no later than February 2009);

(b) to better ensure the safety and effectiveness of the Canadian contingent, the government secure medium helicopter lift capacity and high performance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance before February 2009; and

(c) the government of Canada notify NATO that Canada will end its presence in Kandahar as of July 2011, and, as of that date, the redeployment of Canadian Forces troops out of Kandahar and their replacement by Afghan forces start as soon as possible, so that it will have been completed by December 2011;

And it is the opinion of this House that the government of Canada, together with our allies and the government of Afghanistan, must set firm targets and timelines for the training, equipping and paying of the Afghan National Army, the Afghan National Police, the members of the judicial system and the members of the correctional system;

And it is the opinion of this House that Canada's contribution to the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan should:

(a) be revamped and increased to strike a better balance between our military efforts and our development efforts in Afghanistan;

(b) focus on our traditional strengths as a nation, particularly through the development of sound judicial and correctional systems and strong political institutions on the ground in Afghanistan and the pursuit of a greater role for Canada in addressing the chronic fresh water shortages in the country;

(c) address the crippling issue of the narco-economy that consistently undermines progress in Afghanistan, through the pursuit of solutions that do not further alienate the goodwill of the local population; and

(d) be held to a greater level of accountability and scrutiny so that the Canadian people can be sure that our development contributions are being spent effectively in Afghanistan;

And it is the opinion of this House that Canada should assert a stronger and more disciplined diplomatic position regarding Afghanistan and the regional players, including support for the naming of a special envoy to the region who could both ensure greater coherence in all diplomatic initiatives in the region and also press for greater coordination amongst our partners in the UN in the pursuit of common diplomatic goals in the region;

And it is the opinion of this House that the Government should provide the public with franker and more frequent reporting on events in Afghanistan, offering more assessments of Canada's role and giving greater emphasis to the diplomatic and reconstruction efforts as well as those of the military and, for greater clarity, the Government should table in Parliament detailed reports on the progress of the mission in Afghanistan on a quarterly basis;

And it is the opinion of this House that the House of Commons should strike a special Parliamentary committee on Afghanistan which would meet regularly with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, International Cooperation and National Defence and other senior officials and that the House should authorize travel by the special committee to Afghanistan and the surrounding region so that the special committee can make frequent recommendations on the conduct and progress of our efforts in Afghanistan;

And it is the opinion of this House that the special Parliamentary Committee on Afghanistan should review the laws and procedures governing the use of operational and national security exceptions for the withholding of information from Parliament, the Courts and the Canadian people with those responsible for administering those laws and procedures, to ensure that Canadians are being provided with ample information on the conduct and progress of the mission;

And it is the opinion of this House that with respect to the transfer of Afghan detainees to Afghan authorities, the Government must:

(a) commit to meeting the highest NATO and international standards with respect to protecting the rights of detainees, transferring only when it believes it can do so in keeping with Canada's international obligations;

(b) pursue a NATO-wide solution to the question of detainees through diplomatic efforts that are rooted in the core Canadian values of respect for human rights and the dignity of all people; and

(c) commit to a policy of greater transparency with respect to its policy on the taking of and transferring of detainees including a commitment to report on the results of reviews or inspections of Afghan prisons undertaken by Canadian officials;

And it is the opinion of this House that the government must commit to improved interdepartmental coordination to achieve greater cross-government coherence and coordination of the government's domestic management of our commitment to Afghanistan, including the creation of a full-time task force which is responsible directly to the Prime Minister to lead these efforts.

Canadians to quit Afghanistan

Telegraph – UK, By Thomas Harding Last Updated: 2:02am GMT 22/02/2008

NATO's unity in Afghanistan was unravelling last night as Canada announced the date it is to withdraw its troops.

After months of failing to get other nations to share the burden of intense combat in southern Afghanistan, Ottawa announced that all its troops would be out by 2011. Stephen Harper, the prime minister, has grown increasingly frustrated that Canada's 2,500 troops take the brunt of the fighting and that his country's death toll of 78 is the third highest after those of Britain and America.

His minority Conservative government finally bowed to a key Liberal opposition demand yesterday to confirm that "our commitment is not open-ended".

The decision came after Lord Robertson, the former Nato secretary general who took the organisation into Afghanistan, warned it was developing into a two-tier alliance. "There cannot be one tier for those to carry burdens and the bloody sacrifice and a tier for those who benefit from that contribution. Collective security is what it means - collective," he told a Chatham House conference.

It is thought that France is considering a plan to send a battalion to Kandahar province to assist Canada. But its decision, if it comes, seems too late to prevent the Canadian withdrawal.

Hillier asks for strong parliamentary support for Afghan mission

The Canadian Press, February 22, 2008

OTTAWA — Parliament should give "overwhelming" support to an extension of Canada's mission in Afghanistan or risk the wrath of an enemy that strikes at weakness, the country's top soldier said Friday.

A clear and robust mandate with political and public support back home is least the troops can expect if they are to remain in Afghanistan, said General Rick Hillier, chief of the defence staff.

He said the soldiers don't ask for much, "but they do ask, from the point of view of those who would accept the risk and the sacrifice of that mission, that they be given clarity of purpose in what they are asked to do and they get that clarity of purpose as soon as we can possibly give it to them as a country."

The troops need to know that they have a mission that is militarily viable, Gen. Hillier told a defence conference on Friday. He warned that the Taliban are watching the political debate in Canada for signs of weakness.

"Because we are, in the eyes of the Taliban, in a window of extreme vulnerability," he said. "And the longer we go without that clarity, with the issue in doubt, the more the Taliban will target us as a perceived weak link.

"I'm not going to stand here and tell you that the suicide bombings of this past week have been related to the debate back here in Canada. But I also cannot stand here and say that they are not.

"And, certainly, there is a perception out there that the Taliban will try to take advantage of the debate back here and try to prevent a cohesive mission and will indeed attempt to attack our Canadian Forces in Kandahar."

Gen. Hillier said his troops need a robust mandate that goes beyond self-defence and allows them to go out and find insurgents. In the 1990s in Bosnia, he said, UN troops were limited to self-defence and often couldn't intervene against ethnic cleansing. If self-defence is the first priority, then why not just stay home?

He said Canadian battalions in Bosnia were hamstrung by political caveats, the same kind of limitations some nations have imposed on their troops in Afghanistan, much to Ottawa's displeasure.

Being able to take the fight to the Taliban has led to successes, he said. In recent months, the Canadians hunted down six senior Taliban leaders who masterminded many attacks against coalition forces.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper agreed with the Liberal Opposition Thursday to set a firm 2011 end date on Canada's military mission in volatile Kandahar.

A new motion proposed on Canada's future in Afghanistan by Harper's Conservative minority says the mission will focus on training and reconstruction after next February.

But it also says extension of the mission is conditional on the Canadian Forces getting helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles and on NATO finding a battle group of about 1,000 troops to "rotate" into Kandahar by next February.

The Liberal proposal was clear in spelling out that another NATO country needs to replace Canada in the lead combat role in Kandahar, allowing Canadian troops to focus on reconstruction and training. The new government motion is not so specific and could mean only that NATO must send more troops to reinforce the Canadian contingent.

"If you're going to Kandahar, you have to have the flexibility . . . to conduct the necessary operations to do the mission," Gen. Hillier said after his speech. "And we believe in the motion that that flexibility is there."

Compromise on Afghanistan muffles election drumbeat

Prime Minister bows to Liberal demands on withdrawal date

CAMPBELL CLARK - February 22, 2008 Globe and Mail

OTTAWA -- The Conservative government has proposed a firm date of July, 2011, for Canadian troops to withdraw from southern Afghanistan, moving closer to a deal with the Liberals and removing one potential trigger for a spring election.

But even as Prime Minister Stephen Harper offered compromises on the Afghan mission yesterday, he delivered a full-throated call for a strong shooting military and a government willing to deploy it if Canada wants to be taken seriously. He also pledged long-term acceleration of defence spending.

A parliamentary motion unveiled by Mr. Harper both bows to Liberal demands for a firm end date to the Afghan mission and accepts Liberal wording that the combat mission must refocus on training and security for reconstruction efforts.

"It seems clear that we have moved significantly toward the kind of bipartisan consensus that can be presented to Parliament for ratification," Mr. Harper said in a speech to the Conference of Defence Associations.

The proposed date is five months later than what the Liberals wanted, but foreign affairs critic Bob Rae said it is unlikely to be a major sticking point.

"It would be churlish for anyone to suggest that the government has not come a long way," Mr. Rae said. "We're certainly closer than we've ever been."

After a conference call between Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and a half-dozen Liberal MPs who work on Afghanistan issues, a spokesman for Mr. Dion, Leslie Swartman, suggested that only minor points remain to be bridged.

"I think it's progress," Mr. Dion told reporters in Prince Albert, Sask.

"We welcome this new motion that is based on our Liberal motion. We'll look if we need clarification and amendments and we will participate in this debate."

Debate on the Afghanistan motion starts Monday, but will be interrupted Tuesday afternoon by the budget, which takes precedence over all other business in the House of Commons.

The Liberals could still defeat the government over its budget, but they have recently expressed reluctance to do so.

The government said it plans to have MPs vote on the Afghan motion next month before the Prime Minister heads to a summit of NATO leaders in Bucharest, April 2-4. The government wants NATO to commit another 1,000 troops to Kandahar and help it obtain helicopters and unmanned drones.

The Tory motion adopted almost all of the wording of a motion proposed by Mr. Dion on Feb. 12, but changed a few key points.

It deleted the Liberals' demands that the Canadian Forces refuse to transfer detainees to Afghan authorities. Instead, the government commits to "meeting the highest NATO and international standards" on respecting prisoners' rights.

Mr. Rae said the important point is that the government agreed to accept a firm end date, broadening the mission with more aid and diplomatic efforts, and adopting the Liberal wording on changing the focus of the mission to training Afghan forces and providing security for reconstruction efforts.

"That's what the mission will do. The issue will be if NATO says, 'We want other things to be done,' you say, 'Well, if you want those things to be done, you're going to have to find an additional partner to do that.' "

Also yesterday, Mr. Harper delivered a speech to a defence think tank that stressed the need to be willing to send soldiers to fight to enforce peace in dangerous areas, rather than sticking to classic blue-bereted peacekeeping.

"That is the reality and will be the reality of our world for the foreseeable future," he said. "That means we will need a strong, multifaceted military, backed by the political will to deploy."

He said the world will ignore well-meaning countries without military strength.

"Countries that cannot or will not make real contributions to global security are not regarded as serious players," he said.

"They may be liked by everybody. They may be pleasantly acknowledged by everybody. But when the hard decisions get made, they will be ignored by everybody."

Mr. Harper promised his government would hike the "automatic" increases in military spending in the federal budget starting in 2011, from 1.5 per cent a year to 2 per cent. He said accelerating the increase in defence spending would "thoroughly reverse the so-called rusting out of our Canadian Forces."

Afghan plan carved in paper

National Post – 21 Feb 08 - Combat soldiers patrolling outside the Kandahar military base should shake their helmets in disbelief at the motion sickness rocking Parliament Hill in their name.

While they're racing to drop another engine pack into a stalled tank within rifle range of Taliban hideouts, scrambling to hitch a ride in another nation's helicopters over oft-mined roads, or wondering if that banged-up Toyota they're approaching is booby-trapped, Canadian politicians are twisting their deadly mission into political origami.

Last week's four-page Liberal motion on conditionally extending the Afghanistan mission was countered by a four-page Conservative motion released Thursday that would pass for a photocopy.

There is no measure of mission success or failure in either motion. Only a firm 2011 date for a retreat to somewhere else is up for discussion. The vote is five weeks worth of political chattering away.

It's a bit odd how a usually-defiant Stephen Harper allowed Liberal nemesis Stéphane Dion to ghostwrite his most pressing foreign affairs decision, but that either proves how determined his government is to avoid an Afghanistan referendum wrapped in an election or how laughably far the Liberals have caved to spoon with the Conservative position.

A journalistic mob seized the Conservative motion upon release, frantically checking it word-for-word against the Liberal proposal to spot real or imaginary differences. At most there are three potATEo-versus-potATo variances of little significance.

• Soldiers will down weapons and start packing on either Feb. 1, 2011 (Liberals) or Canada Day that year (Conservatives).

• The six-month process of knocking down tents and loading up equipment will be completed and Canada's spot on the Kandahar Air Field rendered an empty patch of dirt and gravel by either July (Liberals) or December, 2011 (Conservatives).

• The troops and their equipment will either be relocated north into safer provinces or out of the country entirely by the end of 2011. That next destination requires someone to interpret a clause stating there shall be a "redeployment of Canadian Forces troops out of Kandahar" which neglects to clarify if that means all of Afghanistan.

Yet you can parse every syllable in the motion and it's clear nothing will change on the ground for the next three years.

The motions affirm a drift that is already happening -- forcing the military to realign its priorities into training the Afghan army and de-corrupting the police while putting a renewed emphasis on relief and reconstruction. Soldiers can still initiate a fight or return fire upon command from their officers.

What makes both motions worth less than the paper they're printed on is that four years represents an eternity in military deployments and minority government lifespans. By the time Canada starts its sixth year in Kandahar in 2011, one of the two national parties could have a majority mandate for the prime minister to do as he or she damn well pleases in military matters.

If that person is still Stephen Harper, we will not be leaving on schedule in 2011.

This Prime Minister clearly relishes being a middle-power leader with the capacity to unleash "peace-enforcement missions" at will -- a country no longer ignored as the nation of blue helmets with binoculars for weaponry.

We'll get a grounding in reality in a speech from feisty Chief of Defence Staff Rick Hillier this morning, who promises to ensure the soldiers' perspective isn't lost in all the clause-by-clause wrangling over motions.

After that, it's over to politicians for weeks of chatter before MPs approve the extension and send Mr. Harper off to a NATO summit with an ultimatum that another 1,000 troops be delivered to Kandahar next year or Canada will immediately abandon its post.

That demand will undoubtedly be nailed down long before the Prime Minister boards the plane. Mr. Harper may already have a deal from his recent global telethon of allies, opting to withhold that announcement for the international stage because it will look better in Conservative campaign television commercials.

But any soldier-boosting commitment will ensure Canada remains in Kandahar for another 1,500 days, give or take a week under the Conservatives' withdrawal timetable.

For the defence contractor crowd, who provided a standing ovation backdrop for Mr. Harper's announcement yesterday, a longer mission means another hefty batch of equipment orders are on their way.

But at the current rate of casualties, a motion that leaves our Kandahar commitment not even half completed means 100 Canadian soldiers and a million family tears are yet to fall.

Over 30 Taliban killed in operation: Afghan ministry

21 Feb 08 - KABUL (Reuters) - The Afghan army has killed more than 30 Taliban fighters in an operation backed by air support in the violent south of the country, the defense ministry said on Thursday.

The clash happened on Wednesday in Helmand province, a bastion for Taliban guerrillas fighting the Afghan government and its Western backers and Afghanistan's main drug-producing region.

Ousted from power in 2001, the Taliban have made a comeback in the past two years and are active mainly in southern and eastern areas close to the border with Pakistan.

More than 11,000 people have been killed during this period, the bloodiest since U.S.-led troops overthrew the Taliban after its refusal to hand over al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, the architect of the September 11 attacks on the United States.

The ministry said there were no casualties among Afghan soldiers during Wednesday's operation. The Taliban could not be immediately contacted for comment.

Also on Wednesday, a soldier from the NATO-led force operating in Afghanistan was killed by a blast in another part of Helmand province, the defense ministry added.

(Reporting by Sayed Salahuddin; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Kandahar city governor parades bombing suspects at palace

Canwest News, 02/21/2008 By Brian Hutchinson

KANDAHAR - Attempting to prove to a skeptical public that terrorists cannot escape his authority, the governor of Kandahar province opened his palace doors Thursday and showed off 10 men he says were behind this week's string of deadly bombings.

The men were captured in the course of a two-day dragnet, which Gov. Asadullah Khalid said involved Afghan National Police and the International Security Assistance Force, the coalition of national armies in Afghanistan that includes the Canadian Forces.

Among those arrested for the three bombings was their alleged mastermind, identified as Sayed Ahmad. According to Khalid, Ahmad confessed his involvement in each incident. He was apprehended Wednesday along with four other men in the village of Nagan, Arghandab district, just north of Kandahar city.

Three others were arrested in different locations Wednesday, and two more were picked up Thursday.

Police also seized explosive materials, four AK-47 assault rifles, documents and other items. Khalid told reporters the men were planning to launch more bomb attacks in the area. Their arrests likely prevented more bloodshed, he added.

Kandahar was rocked by three consecutive days of explosions that killed scores of Afghans. An attack Monday was directed at a small convoy of Canadian armoured vehicles patrolling the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, in Spin Boldak district.

The assailant, a suicide bomber, approached the convoy and detonated a car filled with explosives. The blast killed at least 35 civilians. Four Canadian soldiers were slightly wounded.

On Sunday, a suicide bomber attacked Afghan National Auxiliary Police officers attending a large dog-fighting rally just outside Kandahar city. It's estimated more than 100 civilians and at least five police officers were killed in that blast.

On Tuesday, a car bomb detonated inside Kandahar city limits, killing one civilian and injuring several others.

Faced with rising public criticism about the ongoing lack of security in Kandahar province, Khalid is eager to show he's taking direct action against any insurgents or terrorists regardless of affiliation.

In a somewhat unusual move, he arranged for the prisoners to be shuttled in police vehicles to his official residence in Kandahar city, and invited members of the local media to take photographs of them standing in a line-up.

While rare, such occasions are meant to send a strong signal. Last year, a number of teenaged boys suspected of robbing a gold market in Kandahar were paraded before reporters at the governor's residence.

The 10 suspects arrived Thursday afternoon with their hands tied behind their backs. Each alleged terrorist was escorted by a different police officer.

Most appeared to be in their mid-twenties. They seemed "nervous and scared," according to one reporter who attended the line-up. Each detainee had a piece of paper attached to his chest with his name written on it.

Aside from one sporting what seemed like a freshly swollen and blackened eye, none of the detainees appeared to have suffered any injury. Ahmad, the alleged ringleader, arrived blindfolded and wearing metal leg shackles.

His blindfold was briefly removed and photographers began snapping pictures. After about one minute, the governor ended the session. The prisoners were led back into waiting police vehicles and driven away, presumably to a detention facility.

Through a spokesman, the Taliban claimed responsibility for Spin Boldak; however, Qari Yousuf Ahmadi denied any Taliban involvement in the other two blasts. Ahmadi also said he "doesn't know anyone by the name Sayed Ahmad," the alleged mastermind behind all three attacks.

The governor referred to Adhmad and the nine other detainees as "enemies of Afghanistan." Other suspects remain at large and the investigation is ongoing, he added.

German paper expects enlargement of Bundeswehr contingent in Afghanistan

Text of report by Thomas Kroeter, "One thousand additional soldiers - coalition plans larger troop contingent for Afghanistan", left-of-centre daily German newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau website on 21 February

The SPD [Social Democratic Party of Germany] is preparing for an enlargement of the Bundeswehr contingent in Afghanistan. "The upper limit of 3,500 troops must not be a dogma," defence expert Hans-Peter Bartels told Frankfurter Rundschau [FR]. "It depends on the job. If we take on additional responsibilities, we must have enough troops to fulfil them." At a meeting of Defence Minister Franz Josef Jung (Christian Democratic Union) and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) with the leaders of the coalition Bundestag groups, the issue had reportedly not been discussed.

At the moment 3,310 German soldiers are serving in the ISAF [International Security and Assistance Force] protection force. As soon as the Bundeswehr, instead of the Norwegian army, provides the Rapid Reaction Force in northern Afghanistan, about 250 men will be added. According to information available to FR, the Bundeswehr cannot withdraw as many troops from Kabul as planned in order to! adhere to the upper limit of the mandate.

According to plans available to the Bundestag committees, 200 additional troops are supposed to reinforce the Konduz camp. Some 150, instead of approximately 50 trainers, are earmarked to intensify the training of the Afghan army. An increase in transport services means an additional 50 troops, the strengthening of a Provincial Reconstruction Team - an additional 150. In addition, Inspector General Wolfgang Schneiderhan would like to have a reserve for unexpected events. According to FR, this may lead to an increase to 4,500 troops.

The Interior Ministry has also announced more activities. Doubling the number of police officers to 120 is "no problem", it was said in Berlin.

NATO: Suicide Bombs Used As Propaganda

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, Published: February 21, 2008

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) -- Militants using mass-casualty suicide attacks in Afghanistan are trying to swing public opinion among NATO nations that have troops here, the top alliance official said Thursday.

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said convincing people and Western parliaments that the situation is not deteriorating is of ''key importance.''

The bombers ''want to influence Afghan public opinion, but at the same time the public opinion in our nations who provide the forces,'' de Hoop Scheffer said at a news conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. ''Let's not give them a ticket to ride.''

The NATO chief was leading a delegation of the alliance's North Atlantic Council, consisting of its 26 permanent representatives, that met with local and international officials in Afghanistan.

Two suicide bombings this week left more than 140 people dead in the south, mostly civilians.

Afghan authorities on Wednesday detained seven men suspected in the deadliest insurgent attack since the Taliban's ouster in 2001 -- a bombing that killed more than 100 at a dog fight Sunday in the provincial capital of Kandahar, Gov. Asadullah Khalid said.

Also Wednesday, Afghan and U.S.-led coalition troops battled for five hours with militants north of Musa Qala, where Taliban militants were in control for much of 2007 before Afghan, U.S. and British troops took the town and surrounding areas in December.

The Afghan Defense Ministry said 30 suspected Taliban fighters were killed in the operation, during which coalition aircraft bombed militant hide-outs. The coalition, reporting no casualty figures, said 11 militants were detained in Wednesday's operation, and 1,000 pounds of heroin and an arms cache were seized.

Helmand is the world's largest opium-producing region, and officials estimate up to 40 percent of proceeds from the country's drug trade are used to fund the insurgency.

The southern region is also where the insurgency is most active, and NATO commanders have asked for more combat troops for the area. NATO's International Security Assistance Forces is now 50,000-strong.

De Hoop Scheffer said more troops would deployed, but did not say how many or where they would go.

NATO also lags in efforts to provide enough military trainers to mentor the fledgling Afghan National Army, de Hoop Scheffer said, calling it a ''mission of necessity.''

''If we do not prevail, if we lose, it will not only be Afghanistan on the losing side, it will be our community, our societies in ... the West and elsewhere,'' he said.

Countries like Canada, which has 2,500 troops in Kandahar, have threatened to end their combat role in Afghanistan unless other NATO countries provide an additional 1,000 troops to help the anti-Taliban drive there.

The United States, which has some 28,000 forces in the country -- both in the NATO-led mission and as part of a separate U.S.-led counterterrorism coalition -- is sending an additional 3,200 Marines in April, most of whom are expected to be stationed in Kandahar during their seven-month tour.

Insurgency-related violence in Afghanistan killed more than 6,500 people in 2007 -- the deadliest year since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, according to a tally of figures from Afghan and Western officials. Most of those killed were insurgents.

An explosion in Helmand on Wednesday killed a British soldier and wounded another, Britain's Ministry of Defense said in London. The blast hit a British patrol trying to disrupt Taliban activity, the ministry said, adding that the cause of the explosion was not immediately known.

Journalists Under Constant Threat in Afghanistan

IFJ 22 Feb 08 - The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) is concerned about increasing disrespect and violence by local authorities and militant groups towards journalists in Afghanistan after reports of police intimidation, death threats and abduction.

According to the Afghan Independent Journalists Association (AIJA), an IFJ associate, five journalists from various media were threatened with guns by security officials outside the Balkh prison as the Deputy Minister for Commerce and Industries, Zia-u-din Zia, visited the site on February 18.

Journalists including Fahim Humdard, from Noor TV, and Sahak, from Shamshad, told the AIJA that the security officials detained them, threatened them and continued to abuse them verbally once they gained entrance to the prison.

All five journalists presented their press cards and were travelling in a clearly marked press vehicle.

Meanwhile, it is reported that the Kabul Shahan weekly was forced to relocate its offices after the newspaper’s owner, Sidiqullah Sahil, received a letter stamped and signed by the Taliban Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on December 15, 2007. The letter accused Sahil of being a spy for international and anti-Taliban authorities, naming him an enemy of Islam and threatening him with death.

Grave concerns are also held for the well-being and safety of Javid Ahmad, a journalist working for Canadian Television (CTV) who is being held at Bagram Air Base. He was detained by US military forces in October 2007 without charge.  

Ahmad was arrested at Kandahar airport for reportedly having contacts with local Taliban leaders and possessing a video containing Taliban materials.  

“Respect for human rights, the rights of journalists and the right to media freedom are essential for the success of Afghanistan as a democratic state,” IFJ Asia-Pacific Director Jacqueline Park said.

“This type of fear mongering and intimidation is a serious impingement of journalists’ rights and it must not continue.”

The IFJ calls on local authorities and members of all political and militant groups in Afghanistan to offer greater respect to journalists in their professional duty to provide fair and balanced reporting of the nation’s events. The IFJ demands that US military forces provide adequate evidence of the reasons for Ahmad’s detention or release him immediately.

SBS swoop to kill Taliban chief

The Sun – UK 22 Feb 08

A TALIBAN chief behind suicide attacks on British troops has been shot dead in a daring operation by elite forces in Afghanistan.

The Special Boat Service ambushed Mullah Abdul Matin as he crossed a desert on a motorbike.

They were dropped into his path by helicopter after a tip-off on his whereabouts. Matin spotted them and opened fire with an AK47 rifle but he was cut down in a hail of bullets.

Two henchmen with him – one his key lieutenant Mullah Karim Agha – were also killed in the firefight. Matin, who was in his 40s, was killed on Monday near Gereshk in war-torn Helmand province. Troops recovered night vision goggles, grenades and a detonator.

Matin, a deputy of Taliban chief Mullah Omar, had been one of the Coalition’s top targets for several months. He had planned several suicide bomb attacks on British convoys, killing two British servicemen and wounding a dozen in the last 18 months.

His fanatics are thought to have murdered Royal Marine Gary Wright, 22, from 45 Commando in October 2006, and Sgt Dave Wilkinson, 33, from 19 Regiment Royal Artillery, last July. He is also thought to be behind the murders of dozens of Afghan civilians.

British Forces spokesman in Helmand, Lieutenant Colonel Simon Millar, said: “Mullah Matin’s been a priority target for some time. He commanded fighters and reported directly to the highest Taliban levels of command.

“He’s responsible for the kidnapping of local nationals, had links with the narcotics trade and had provided security to the traffickers.”

NATO spokesman Brigadier General Carlos Branco said the Taliban had suffered “another severe setback”.

Afghan police seize weapons, ammunition in Kabul

Text of report by privately-owned Afghan Ariana TV on 21 February

[Presenter] The Kabul Security Command seized more than 70 machineguns as they were being smuggled out of the city today. According to Salem Ehsas, the Kabul security commander, they discovered the guns, most of them Kalashnikovs, hidden in a lorry in the Khairkhana Kotal area of Kabul city. My colleague Hakimollah Shareyar has further details on this:

[Correspondent] Kabul security officials say the weapons were skilfully hidden in a goods vehicle, but the police discovered and seized them in Khairkhana Kotal at around 0300 am [1000 gmt] on 21 February. Salem Ehsas says they have arrested two suspects in connection with the incident, but it is still unclear where the weapons were smuggled from.

[Salem Ehsas] There are 74 Kalashnikovs of different types, two Pika machineguns, 22 boxes of bullets, magazines and two other bags of ammunition.

[Correspondent] The Kabul security commander has also said that criminal acts, particularly armed robberies, ! have markedly decreased in the city in the past four months.

NATO winning battles, losing Afghanistan

Asia Times 2/21/2008 By Ali Gharib

WASHINGTON - "Make no mistake", begins a new issue brief from non-partisan think-tank the Atlantic Council of the United States, "NATO is not winning in Afghanistan".

That brief, called "Saving Afghanistan: An Appeal and Plan for Urgent Action", was released on Wednesday at an event on Capitol Hill, along with two other reports that call on the international community and the US to "re-energize their faltering effort" in Afghanistan.

The speakers at the release of the reports all showed equal concern that, despite overwhelming US and international military might, things are going badly awry in Afghanistan and that a comprehensive reworking of international strategy there was needed.

"The fatal consequence, all too familiar to those of who lived through Vietnam, is that you can win every battle, but fail to win the war," said Senator John Kerry in his introductory remarks. "Absent a new focus and a transformed strategy, many of us fear that may be happening again."

Though removed from power early in the US-led invasion of Afghanistan seven years ago, the Taliban resurged last year, leaving experts worried that a weak central government and misguided international efforts could lead to a failed state that would become a safe haven for the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

"Strategy relates to priorities and resources. And it relates to upsetting the opponents' center of gravity," said David Abshire, the head of the Center for the Study of the Presidency and a former US ambassador to NATO. "The center of gravity of all this started with al-Qaeda and the Taliban. And we've gotten our eye too much off that ball in terms of our finishing the job."

The Center for the Study of the Presidency established the Afghanistan Study Group to assess new ideas in a manner similar to the Iraq Study Group, whose 2006 findings fundamentally challenged the way that the George W Bush administration was waging the war there, and called for a greater push in Afghanistan to complement the Iraq war.

But the authors of the reports released on Wednesday all emphasized a separation of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, despite their coexistence under the banner of the Bush administration's "war on terror".

"We ought to decouple - up here [on Capitol Hill], and in the minds of the executive branch, and I hope in the minds of the American people and our European allies - Iraq and Afghanistan," said ambassador Thomas Pickering, a co-chair of the Afghanistan Study Group.

"Afghanistan has hovered too long under the shadow of Iraq. It has its own strategic importance," he said. "If things go bad there the region is affected. Beyond the region, Europe and the United States will be affected. A new homeland for the Taliban is the last thing in the world we want to see."

The Afghanistan Study Group report said that the current separation was insufficient and that there was "an emerging view that Afghanistan and its long-term problems would be better addressed by decoupling funding and related programmes from those for Iraq".

Both the Afghanistan Study Group and the Atlantic Council's reports also called for an overhaul of the bureaucratic systems that run the military and civil society efforts in Afghanistan.

On an international level, the groups both called for the appointment of a high commissioner at the United Nations to oversee international aid, reconstruction and civil society improvements.

Much to the disappointment of those in attendance Wednesday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai expressed reservations about British statesman Paddy Ashdown's appointment to the post last week at the World Economic Form in Davos, Switzerland. Ashdown - who had previously been the UN high representative for Bosnia - withdrew his candidacy, citing a lack of Afghan support.

Similar to the international recommendation, the reports called for the consolidation of US aims with the creation of a special envoy to Afghanistan - referred to as the Afghanistan czar - who would be responsible for coordinating military and civilian operations as well as maintaining ties to the international efforts of the UN, NATO and Europe.

Another issue that loomed large in the reports was the re-emergence of the opium trade in Afghanistan. Current figures put the Afghan share of the world opium market at over 90% - accounting for an estimated 60% of the impoverished nation's gross domestic product.

"Narcotics, in my view, is the cancer that is eating Afghanistan inside and out," said retired General James L Jones, a former NATO commander who worked on both of the broader reports. "It criminalizes the society. It provides the economic incentive for weapons purchases that come back and kill our soldiers. And it defies, so far, any strategic solution that we've seen."

Several proposed solution were discussed at the meeting - including buying up and destroying opium crops - where a National Defence University paper called "Winning the Invisible War" on a proposed comprehensive agricultural plan for Afghanistan was released.

"It was absolutely clear for somebody who had been in war and in war zones that while NATO and coalition was never going to lose on the military side, military force could not win," said Harlan Ullman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies and the lead author of the NDU paper. "It was really the civil sector that needed great repair."

The plan hopes that, using practices from the US agricultural markets such as efficient means of exporting goods, Afghan farmers will be able to turn away from the steady income stream of opium production and towards legitimate agriculture.

Always a hot topic in the region, Afghanistan's relations with its neighbors was also discussed.

The most contentious issue, at the moment, is the problem with Pakistan. The border region between the two countries is difficult to police and is known as a staging ground from which the Taliban has launched its insurgency. But a slower-burning issue exists in Afghan relations with Iran.

Iran - which Bush once labeled as part of the "axis of evil" - enjoys what Karzai last week called "a particularly good relationship" with Afghanistan. The distinction as a US enemy doesn't seem to bother Karzai, and critics of the Bush strategy in the Middle East point to this as another example of a time when the US should be positively engaging Iran.

"The present US stance of not speaking with Tehran about Afghanistan risks increasing the likelihood that Iran will step up its covert interference as a way of hurting the United States," said the Afghanistan Study Group Report, adding that if the US couldn't talk directly, it should do so through NATO or other international means.

Iran, under a religiously conservative government, is a natural ally in the battle against the opium trade.

"One of the reasons the administration was put off [by the Iraq Study Group] was because it said open up communication. That doesn't mean negotiation," said ambassador Abshire. "I'm for communication because of the different elements that you want to reach out to," he said, noting that the Iranian population and even politicians have a wide variety of views about the US.

Pakistan Shift Could Curtail Drone Strikes

NY Times, By ERIC SCHMITT and DAVID E. SANGER Published: February 22, 2008

WASHINGTON — American officials reached a quiet understanding with Pakistan’s leader last month to intensify secret strikes against suspected terrorists by pilotless aircraft launched in Pakistan, senior officials in both governments say. But the prospect of changes in Pakistan’s government has the Bush administration worried that the new operations could be curtailed.

Among other things, the new arrangements allowed an increase in the number and scope of patrols and strikes by armed Predator surveillance aircraft launched from a secret base in Pakistan — a far more aggressive strategy to attack Al Qaeda and the Taliban than had existed before.

But since opposition parties emerged victorious from the parliamentary election early this week, American officials are worried that the new, more permissive arrangement could be choked off in its infancy.

In the weeks before Monday’s election, a series of meetings among President Bush’s national security advisers resulted in a significant relaxation of the rules under which American forces could aim attacks at suspected Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the tribal areas near Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan.

The change, described by senior American and Pakistani officials who would not speak for attribution because of the classified nature of the program, allows American military commanders greater leeway to choose from what one official who took part in the debate called “a Chinese menu” of strike options.

Instead of having to confirm the identity of a suspected militant leader before attacking, this shift allowed American operators to strike convoys of vehicles that bear the characteristics of Qaeda or Taliban leaders on the run, for instance, so long as the risk of civilian casualties is judged to be low.

The new, looser rules of engagement may have their biggest impact at a secret Central Intelligence Agency base in Pakistan whose existence was described by American and Pakistani officials who had previously kept it secret to avoid embarrassing President Pervez Musharraf politically. Mr. Musharraf, whose party lost in this week’s election by margins that surprised American officials, has been accused by political rivals of being too close to the United States.

The base in Pakistan is home to a handful of Predators — unmanned aircraft that are controlled from the United States. Two Hellfire missiles from one of those Predators are believed to have killed a senior Qaeda commander, Abu Laith al-Libi, in northwest Pakistan last month, though a senior Pakistani official said his government had still not confirmed that Mr. Libi was among the dead. A C.I.A. spokesman declined on Thursday to comment on any operations in Pakistan.

The new agreements with Pakistan came after a trip to the country on Jan. 9 by Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, and Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the C.I.A. director. The American officials met with Mr. Musharraf as well as with the new army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, and offered a range of increased covert operations aimed at thwarting intensifying efforts by Al Qaeda and the Taliban to destabilize the Pakistani government.

But Bush administration officials and American counterterrorism experts are expressing concern that these arrangements could come under review or be scaled back by the winners of Pakistan’s parliamentary elections. The two winning parties have said they want to enter talks with Pashtun tribal leaders who opposed the military government of Mr. Musharraf and who at times have supported the Taliban and given refuge to foreign Qaeda fighters.

“A new government may be able to reach an accord with the militants, and that would buy the government a certain respite,” said Robert L. Grenier, a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Counterterrorism Center. “But that would give the militants space to provide safe haven to Al Qaeda and other extremists engaged in attacks in Afghanistan.”

Xenia Dormandy, the director for South Asia at the National Security Council until 2005, said Thursday that if talks resulted in the kind of truce — and pullback of Pakistani troops — that Mr. Musharraf negotiated nearly two years ago, the militants would probably continue to gain strength.

“If they try to replicate what we’ve already seen, I don’t know why the result would be any different,” she said. But she added that if the Pakistani military remained in the area, the government might retain some leverage.

The question of what to do next in Pakistan is likely to preoccupy the Bush administration in its last year. Officials say there is clear, if unstated, pressure to make a last effort to capture or kill Osama bin Laden before Mr. Bush leaves office. But several senior officials in the State Department have been warning that the administration’s full-scale backing of Mr. Musharraf was a wrong-headed strategy that could now blow up.

Other administration officials warned not to read too much into the initial comments from Asif Ali Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party and widower of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, about reaching accords with the tribal leaders. Mr. Zardari, they noted, has made clear that he wants to defeat terrorism and has pointed out that terrorists killed his wife, so he wants to defeat them.

Opposition parties and analysts say American officials were misinterpreting the outcome of the elections, which were dominated by the country’s liberal, secular parties. An alliance of religious parties that controlled the provincial government in the North-West Frontier Province was driven from power and even lost the majority of seats in the tribal areas.

Opposition parties say a new civilian-led government will be more effective at countering militancy than the military-dominated one under Mr. Musharraf. They say that Mr. Musharraf’s strategy has failed and that a new approach is needed.

Instead, the opposition parties have called for a strategy in the tribal areas similar to the new counterinsurgency strategies employed by the American military in Afghanistan and Iraq. There, the United States has tried to use a combination of military force, reconstruction and political dialogue to turn local tribes against militants.

The question, senior American and Pakistani officials said Thursday, was how the strategy to accomplish these common goals might change.

“In the short term, there will be some confusion and some hiccups,” said Henry A. Crumpton, a former top State Department counterterrorism official. “But in the medium and longer term, there will be continued and perhaps even closer cooperation, because of our mutual interests.”

David Rohde contributed reporting from Peshawar, Pakistan.

Asfandyar urges foreign aid to keep extremists on run

* ANP chief says deprivation forces people to militancy

Daily Times 22 Feb 08

CHARSADDA: The leader of a secular party hailed its election win over hardliners as a triumph for moderate forces, but called for international aid to stamp out militancy for good.

Asfandyar Wali Khan, chief of the Awami National Party (ANP), said economic assistance and political reconciliation were the key to success in a region where Al Qaeda and Taliban militants were holed up.

“The voters have made it clear that they do not want wars and militancy,” Khan told AFP in an interview on Wednesday in Charsadda.

“The foremost priority for us now is to restore peace in this province, which is now known worldwide for producing extremists and terrorists,” Khan said.

The country’s northwest has seen the worst of a wave of violence blamed on Al Qaeda and Taliban militants that has swept the country in recent months, worrying Musharraf’s Western allies.

ANP rallies were bombed twice in the run-up to the polls, killing around two dozens of people. The party now has 10 national seats after the parliamentary elections – while the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal – an alliance of religious parties – saw its seats fall from 56 to five.

Khan warned, however, that keeping momentum against extremism involved international economic assistance and ending the political disenfranchisement of many parts of the conservative province.

“Our people have given their verdict and now the ball is in the court of the international community to support us in our quest to give our children books and pens instead of Kalashnikovs and suicide jackets,” he said.

He blamed the ongoing insurgency in the tribal belt bordering Afghanistan, and a recent uprising led by hardine Mullah Fazlullah in Swat, on the outgoing administration’s failure to engage the region’s people.

Sense of deprivation: “It is in fact the existing sense of deprivation and disenchantment which forced people to launch a rebellion against the government,” Khan said.

Troops have killed hundreds of militants in the troubled tribal regions bordering Afghanistan since 2001, angering many in the region and fuelling anti-Western sentiment.

But Khan was non-committal when asked whether his party would continue to support the Musharraf regime’s support for the US-led “war on terror”.

The ANP has previously spoken out against the country’s involvement, saying that a war of foreign powers was being fought on Pakistani soil.

“As far as the war on terror is concerned, this is something being supervised by the central government,” Khan said.

“This is not a provincial matter but we will discuss it with the centre after formation of new governments.”

But he was clear of the need to solve the militancy problem.

“God help Pakistan and this region if these moderate forces fail to deliver and rid the country of terrorism, militancy and extremism,” the ANP chief said. afp

A Milestone on the Road to Democracy

Washington Post, By Pervez Musharraf Friday, February 22, 2008; Page A23

After months of turmoil, including the death of an important national figure, Benazir Bhutto, and the civil unrest that followed, Pakistan has successfully carried out a critical election -- balloting that was a milestone in our nation's 60-year history.

Pakistan's transition to democracy is essential to achieving reconciliation among our people. The government worked tirelessly to ensure that Monday's vote would be free, fair, transparent and peaceful. A broad range of new procedures were put in place -- such as the public counting of ballots at each polling station -- to make certain that this would be the fairest election ever held in Pakistan.

The historical significance of this election makes this the right moment for an honest discussion of the challenges and opportunities confronting both Pakistan and the United States, whose interest in a stable, democratic government in Islamabad is matched by that of the Pakistani people.

Our nation faces three main tasks: defeating terrorism and extremism; building a stable and effective democratic government; and creating a solid foundation for sustained economic growth. Because these goals are shared by the vast majority of Pakistanis, I am certain we can and will accomplish them, and I stand ready to work with the newly elected Parliament to achieve these objectives.

Do we still face challenges? Of course. Do great opportunities lie ahead? The answer is an emphatic yes. Our economy is strong -- and growing stronger. Our armed forces are dedicated, professional and committed to maintaining both public order and the integrity of our political system. Most important, the overwhelming majority of our 160 million people are firmly committed to a moderate view of Islam and to the national prosperity that only modernization can bring.

On terrorism, let me be perfectly clear: Pakistan faces and fights this menace with full dedication. How could we not? Al-Qaeda and its affiliates have declared war on the civilized world, and the moderate government and people of Pakistan are prime targets. Some have questioned our commitment to the fight against extremism. In fact, more than 1,000 Pakistani troops have lost their lives fighting al-Qaeda and Taliban forces over the past four years, and 112,000 troops are fully engaged in the regions along our border with Afghanistan. We will continue to work closely with our longtime American allies in our common struggle to rid Pakistan and the world of militant extremism.

But as the U.S. experience in Iraq has shown, military force alone is not sufficient. A successful counterinsurgency requires a multi-pronged approach -- military, political and economic. Our political strategy emphasizes separating terrorists from those citizens living in the regions bordering Afghanistan. Our economic strategy is bringing education, economic opportunity and the benefits of development to those same areas. As history has clearly taught us, when people see improvement in their daily lives and the lives of their children, they turn away from violence and toward peace and reconciliation.

But our success will require the continued support of the United States. I would ask Americans to remember that building democracy is difficult in the best of conditions; doing so in a complex country such as Pakistan -- with its uneasy political history, with its centuries-old regional and feudal cleavages, and with violent extremists dedicated to the defeat of democracy -- is even more challenging. As history has shown, a peaceful transition to democracy requires the leadership of government and the willingness of the population to embrace democratic ideals. The people of Pakistan on Monday demonstrated that willingness; now it is time for government leaders to work together and do our part.

The writer is president of Pakistan.

Islamists, not Musharraf, real losers in Pak polls

* Iranian journalist says Muslims interested in joining ‘global mainstream of democratisation’

Daily Times 22 Feb 08 - Washington: Pakistan’s elections were not a defeat for President Pervez Musharraf since the “real losers” were the Islamist parties.

Iranian journalist Amir Taheri writes that despite funding provided by Tehran and wealthy Gulf Arabs, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal failed to achieve the “approaching victory” that Islamist candidates had boasted about.

“The Islamist defeat in Pakistan confirms a trend that’s been under way for years. Conventional wisdom had it that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the lack of progress in the Israel-Palestine conflict, would provide radical Islamists with a springboard from which to seize power through elections,” he said.

So far, he argues, no Islamist party has managed to win a majority of the popular vote in any of the Muslim countries where reasonably clean elections are held. If anything, the Islamist share of the vote has been declining across the board, Taheri points out.

Global mainstream: According to Taheri, “Far from rejecting democracy because it is supposed to be ‘alien’, or using it as a means of creating totalitarian Islamist systems, a majority of Muslims have repeatedly shown that they like elections, and would love to join the global mainstream of democratisation. President Bush is right to emphasise the importance of holding free and fair elections in all Muslim majority countries.

Tyrants fear free and fair elections, a fact illustrated by the Khomeinist regime’s efforts to fix the outcome of next month’s poll in Iran by pre-selecting the candidates. Support for democratic movements in the Muslim world remains the only credible strategy for winning the war against terror.” khalid hasan

Afghan health sector on the mend, says US surgeon

Pak Tribune 22 Feb 08

NEW YORK: Impressed by improvement in the health care sector, a top US army health care official said Afghanistan had moved a step closer to being an independent, self-sufficient nation. I’m impressed by the dedication and the heroics of many of the Afghans, who are willing to put their lives at stake in order to be able to improve their health care system, said a commander surgeon with the Combined Joint Task Force-82.

Colonel Jeffery Johnson told Pentagon reporters through teleconference: As the Afghans take the lead and we purposefully put ourselves into a supporting role, we continue to see incredible progress that is, importantly, culturally appropriate, fiscally responsible and really long-term-focused.

Responsible for the health services provided to the US contingent in Afghanistan. Johnson acknowledged there was a long way to go, because there was much work that still had to be done in Afghanistan.

Focus on the human intellectual development, capacity building and the empowerment of the Afghan health sector was critical to the overall progress of the country, the colonel pointed out.

Also critical is the collaborative work with all of the other partners that remain essential to leveraging their synergistic skills and resources, as well as ensuring that the expertise that is there allows the Afghans to lead their international approach to their future, he added. Responding to a question, he said Taliban would obviously seek to intimidate doctors and women who providing health care to the people.

The provision of health was something directly tied back into the government. But I think what I’ve also seen is some very heroic Afghans who are willing to stand up and say "Enough is enough. It’s now time for us to take our country back. It’s now time for us to be able to understand what our local people want, what they need. And we’re willing to take some risks" -- this is the Afghan health care providers -- "We’re willing to take some risks in order to make sure that we can reestablish the basic needs for our people."

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