In this bulletin:

• Afghan president safe after fleeing gunfire at Kabul event
• Afghanistan investigates deadly parade attack
• Afghan Foreign Ministry pessimistic about Pakistan's peace deal with Taleban
• Foreigners in Tribal Areas spreading terror: Musharraf
• Pakistan government striving for safe release of abducted envoy - minister
• Militants behead 'spy' in Pakistani tribal area: police
• Police: Roadside bombs kill 4 Afghan police
• Afghan analysts says 1978 coup was start of "big tragedy"
• Afghan traders to import 50,000 tonnes of flour, wheat from Russia
• Unemployment, price rises turning into "serious" problems - Afghan TV
• Insecurity halts poppy eradication drive in 10 southern Afghan districts
• NATO's mission in Afghanistan - success or failure?
• Afghan TV says Taleban call to stop death penalty verdict deceitful
• Two Fronts, Same Worries
• Try 'Pakistan First'
• Editorial: Mehsud deal
• Opinion: Pakistan’s security and NWFP peace plan
• Editorial: Pipe dream

Afghan president safe after fleeing gunfire at Kabul event

By AMIR SHAH – KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Suspected Taliban militants attacked a ceremony attended by the Afghan president on Sunday, unleashing automatic weapons fire that sent foreign dignitaries and senior members of the government fleeing for cover.

Three people, including a lawmaker, were killed and eight were wounded. President Hamid Karzai, Cabinet ministers and ambassadors escaped unharmed, the presidential palace said.

Karzai later appeared on television saying several suspects in the attack had been arrested. He said that "the enemy of Afghanistan" tried to disrupt the ceremony but were thwarted by security forces.

A Taliban spokesman claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it had deployed six militants with suicide vests and guns to target the president. Spokesman Zabiullah Mujaheed said three had died.

A police official, who requested anonymity because of he was not authorized to speak to media, said security forces killed three gunmen who had opened fire from an apartment block not far from the ceremony and confiscated assault rifles and machine guns. Government officials could not immediately confirm that information.

Hundreds of people fled in chaos as shots rang out, just as the national anthem ended at a ceremony to mark the 16th anniversary of Afghanistan's victory over the Soviet invasion.

The gunfire appeared to come from ruined houses about few hundred yards from where the VIPs were seated. Security forces deployed elsewhere opened fire at the houses.

Karzai was escorted from scene, surrounded by bodyguards, in one of four black Landcruisers. A U.S. embassy official said U.S. Ambassador William Wood also escaped unharmed.

Along with lawmaker Fazel Rahman Samkanai, a local Shiite leader and a 10-year-old boy also died in the attack, officials said.

"President Karzai condemns this act and asks for all the people to remain calm," a statement from the presidential palace said.

Karzai, who has led Afghanistan since soon after a U.S.-led invasion ousted the Taliban regime in 2001, has been targeted by assassins before and is constantly shadowed by a phalanx of bodyguards.

The attack came despite unprecedented tight security for Sunday's celebrations.

For days Kabul has been ringed by checkpoints with security forces and plainclothes intelligence officials searching vehicles. The area where the ceremonies took place had been blocked off by troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers.

The live TV coverage of the assassination attempt will add to the sense of insecurity in the Afghan capital, which has been spared the worst of the violence as fighting has escalated between Taliban insurgents and NATO and U.S.-led forces — leaving thousands dead last year.

It was the first militant attack in the city since mid-March.

In TV footage, two lawmakers who were sitting about 30 yards from Karzai appeared to be hit by the gunfire. One of the men slumped back in his seat, while the other lay on the ground.

People at the ceremony ducked for cover then fled — among them Afghan police and soldiers who were assembled for the pageantry. Karzai had just completed a drive-past in a U.S.-supplied Humvee jeep.

Mujaheed, the Taliban spokesman, said insurgents carrying AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades perpetrated the attack. He said BM-12 missiles — a crude rocket launched from a small platform — were used in the attack. He spoke to an AP reporter by phone from an undisclosed location.

Mohammad Saleh Saljoqi, a lawmaker at the ceremony, said there was continuous AK-47 gunfire and two rockets — which he described as rocket-propelled grenades — landed near the dignitaries.

One rocket hit inside the Eid Gah mosque opposite where Karzai was sitting. The second hit when the president had already left, landing about 50 yards away, Saljoqi said.

About 100 people were rounded up for questioning, an Afghan intelligence official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to media.

Karzai's narrowest escape from an assassination attempt since he became president came in September 2002 when a gunman opened fire as he visited the southern city of Kandahar. Three people, including the gunman, died in that attack.

Afghanistan investigates deadly parade attack

KABUL (AFP) — Afghanistan was Monday investigating how militants could get within 500 metres of President Hamid Karzai and other top leaders to carry out a brazen attack that left three Afghans dead.

The insurgent Taliban movement said it launched Sunday's attack to show it had the power to strike even the nation's biggest annual military parade.

The event, which was supposed to showcase the Afghan army's growing strength after getting new training and equipment, mainly from the United States, had been weeks in the making with stepped-up patrols and roadblocks around Kabul.

Karzai immediately announced an investigation to find out how the militants breached security to hammer bullets into the back of the stage where he was seated with a host of Afghan and foreign dignitaries as well as launch rockets.

"First, it will investigate the plot and identify those behind the attack ... and second it will find out where the problem in providing security lay," Defence Minister General Abdul Rahim Wardak told reporters.

The inquiry would comprise the ministries of defence and interior, the intelligence agency and the presidential security guard, the general said.

The attack erupted soon after Karzai had reached the platform following an inspection of troops and as a 21-gun salute was ringing out across the city to mark the 16th anniversary of the fall of the last communist government.

Security forces were nonetheless praised for their swift response.

Moments after the gunfire and explosions erupted, they had shot dead three attackers in a building about 500 metres (1,500 feet) from the stage where Karzai and other officials were seated.

The building, near the city's biggest mosque, is backed by a warren of bombed-out structures in one of Kabul's most shabby areas, known as a haunt of drug users and criminals.

The attackers, armed with machine guns that had grenade launchers attached, were caught with a solid supply of bullets and grenades, defence ministry officials said.

The militants killed two men -- a national parliamentarian and a tribal leader -- and wounded nearly 10, the defence ministry officials said. A 10-year-old boy was also killed, apparently in return fire.

Several people were quickly arrested, "one or two of them most likely involved in this terrorist attack," Wardak said.

Security forces had "identified some people who might have facilitated this act of terrorism," the minister added, without giving details.

Analyst Waheed Mujda said there was a chance elements of the security forces may have been involved, as has been suggested in the previous most dramatic attack in Kabul -- the Taliban's storming of a five-star hotel in January.

That strike, carried out by men in police uniform, left at least eight people dead, including three foreign nationals. It forced many venues frequented by foreigners to ramp up security.

Just like some ordinary Afghans support the "armed opposition," so do some members of the army or police, Mujda said.

"I think it would have been very difficult for them to carry out such an attack without supports from these elements," he said.

The 1996-2001 Taliban government was ousted in a US-led invasion for harbouring Al-Qaeda leaders after the 9/11 attacks.

They have regrouped to wage an insurgency that last year left 8,000 people dead, mostly rebel fighters but including 1,500 civilians.

A Western diplomat said the fact the attackers could hit such a "high-value target" was a propaganda victory, but it would be wrong to assume the strike was due to the incompetence of the security forces.

"You have got a city which has got four million-plus people, and what you never get any attention to is what does not happen," he said on condition of anonymity.

"The NDS (National Directorate of Security) is an extremely effective intelligence outfit and they have stopped a lot of attacks and have been very successful in frustrating many insurgent attempts to penetrate the city."

The diplomat added that only a small group was involved in Sunday's attack and they had only been able to come within "the end of effective range."

UN spokesman in Afghanistan, Aleem Siddique, said the Afghan security forces did a good job in securing Karzai and the other dignitaries.

"They acted calmly and swiftly took action," he said. Nonetheless, "We welcome the investigation that Karzai has announced to look at how this incident could have occurred."

Afghan Foreign Ministry pessimistic about Pakistan's peace deal with Taleban

Text of report by privately-owned Afghan Ariana TV on 25 April

[Presenter] The Afghan Foreign Ministry says Pakistan's peace pact with local Taleban will bring no positive results. The ministry says such a deal with the Taleban will improve neither the security of Pakistan nor that of Afghanistan.

Reportedly, Pakistan is in the process of reaching a peace pact with Taleban in Afghan-Pakistani border areas. Earlier, the government of Pakistan spoke about a possible peace deal with Islamic militants, saying it would result in peace restoration in that country's tribal areas.

Meanwhile top Pakistani Taleban commander Baitullah Mehsud called on his men to stop their attacks on government institutions inside Pakistan. My colleague Emal Habibi has a report on this.

[Reporter] According to foreign media, Afghan Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta has said that any peace deal with international terrorism is doomed to defeat. Speaking about Pakistan's previous peace deal with the Taleban in 2006, Spant! a said that the previous peace deal had worsened the security situation both in Pakistan and in Afghanistan.

He said that soon after the peace deal in 2006, Taleban intensified their attacks on the government and foreign forces in Afghanistan. The foreign minister said that both Pakistan and Afghanistan with the world community's cooperation should look into ways of getting rid of terrorism in their areas.

To end insecurity in Pakistan, that country's new government recently expressed readiness to hold talks with the Taleban and reach a peace deal.

In reaction to this, Taleban top military commander Baitullah Mehsud in Pakistan called on his men to stop their attacks on the government in Pakistan. Baitullah Mehsud has several military bases in southern Waziristan, and his men have been in war with Pakistani forces over the past few years.

Baitullah Mehsud's announcement, which has been widely distributed in tribal areas of Pakistan, cal! ls on supporters of Baitullah Mehsud to stop attacks on Pakistani forc es for the sake of peace and security. According to this announcement, those who disobey the command will be punished in public.

It is worth mentioning that the US government has also expressed concern over peace talks between the Pakistani government and militants in Pakistani-Afghan border areas.

Foreigners in Tribal Areas spreading terror: Musharraf

Daily Times 27 April 2008 - LAHORE: Foreigners hiding in the Tribal Areas are carrying out and supporting terrorist activities, President Pervez Musharraf said on Saturday.

He was addressing the participants of the 88th National Management Course (NMC) and the Third Senior NMC at National Management College in Lahore.

Foreigners, especially Uzbeks and Afghans, who had links with Al Qaeda were hiding in Pakistan’s tribal belt and the mountains, the president said. He said they carried out terrorist activities in Pakistan and provided resources for terrorism.

The president said the militant Taliban, who had links with the foreign militants, were also facilitating terrorism.

He said terrorism and extremist were hampering Pakistan’s development and feared the spread of Talibanisation beyond the Tribal Areas to Swat and southern parts of the NWFP.

Some groups in Balochistan, such as the Balochistan Liberation Army, had a “separatist tendency”, Musharraf said.

“We have to chalk out long-term strategy to address these grave problems.”

New government: The new government could resolve Pakistan’s problems, including terrorism if there was harmony between the coalition partners, the president said.

He stressed the continuation of the previous government’s policies. Changing the previous government’s policies would hinder Pakistan’s development, he said.

Musharraf also stressed bridging the gap between the formulation and implementation of policies.

“The government sector faces two major problems – a large gap between policy formulation and implementation as well as lack of sustainability and continuation.”

He said the delay in decision-making was also a major problem. “The job of a government is to ensure security, progress and development of the country and welfare and well-being of its people,” he said. app

Pakistan government striving for safe release of abducted envoy - minister

Text of report by official news agency Associated Press of Pakistan (APP)

Islamabad, 25 April: Minister for Foreign Affairs Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on Friday [25 April] that the government was making all out efforts for safe release of Pakistan Ambassador to Afghanistan Tariq Azizuddin.

Babar Ghauri of MQM [Muttahida Qaumi Movement] had raised point of order on the abduction of the Pakistan envoy.

The minister said that his abduction was a serious and unfortunate incident. He told the House that Tariq Azizuddin is safe and the government is in contact with him. Health-wise he is fine and being provided meal and medicines in time, the minister added.

He further said that he has personally met with the wife and the brother of the abducted envoy. He expressed the hope that soon he would be released safely.

Militants behead 'spy' in Pakistani tribal area: police

WANA, Pakistan (AFP) — Pro-Taliban militants beheaded a policeman in Pakistan's troubled tribal belt bordering Afghanistan on Monday after accusing him of spying for security forces, police said.

The body of 35-year-old Shaukat Khan was found dumped in a field at Dabar village in the tribal zone of South Waziristan, a day after he was abducted by gunmen, senior police officer Mumtaz Zarin told AFP.

A note found near the body said he was involved in the killing of Islamist warlord Nek Mohammad in a suspected US missile strike in June 2004 in the region, Zarin said.

"He had admitted his role in providing intelligence to the authorities," the note said. "We have repeatedly said we will teach such people a lesson."

Khan had been working as a tribal policeman at the local administration office in Wana, the main town in South Waziristan, which is inundated with Taliban and Al-Qaeda linked militants.

Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants have killed several tribesmen in recent months over allegations that they were spying for Pakistani forces in the tribal areas and US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's new government is in talks with local militants over a possible peace pact and a key commander in South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud, last week declared a ceasefire with the military.

German intelligence denies details of bugging Afghan minister

Text of report by independent German news agency ddp on 26 April

Berlin: The Federal Intelligence Service (BND) disputes certain details of news magazine Der Spiegel's account of the eavesdropping on Afghan Commence and Industries Minister [Mohammad] Amin Farhang. It was not the minister's personal e-mail account that had been targeted but his official e-mail address, a BND spokesman told [Sunday 27 April edition of] Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper. The intelligence service also contradicted the claim that every one of Farhang's telephone calls, from both his office and his home, had been bugged, as reported by Mitteldeutsche Zeitung newspaper. This claim was incorrect, said the BND spokesman.

Police: Roadside bombs kill 4 Afghan police

By Rahim Faiez, ASSOCIATED PRESS April 26, 2008

KABUL, Afghanistan – Roadside bombs killed four Afghan police officers Saturday in attacks by suspected Taliban militants, officials and a witness said.

A remote-controlled bomb destroyed a police vehicle in the Waghaz district of central Ghazni province, said deputy provincial police chief Mohammed Zaman.

An Associated Press Television News cameraman at the scene saw three burned, mutilated corpses. Four other officers were wounded and hospitalized, Zaman said.

In western Farah province, a bomb blast hit a police vehicle in Bala Buluk district, killing one officer and wounding another, provincial police chief Khalil Rahmani said.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks, but Taliban militants often target Afghan police, who are less trained and worse equipped than the national army.

The weak United States-backed government and a NATO-led security force is struggling to contain the Taliban-led insurgency, six years after the Islamist militia fell from power.

More than 900 police were among the 8,000 people reported killed in insurgency-related violence during 2007. A U.S. general this week predicted the violence could increase in 2008.

Afghan analysts says 1978 coup was start of "big tragedy"

Text of report by Afghan independent Tolo TV, on 26 April

[Presenter] Today, 7 Sowr [26 April] marks the 30th anniversary of the coup by the Hezb-e Democratic Khalq-e Afghanistan party, and the fall of the republican government of Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan.

Those who were behind the coup managed to topple Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan's five-year-old republican government.

The day 7 Sowr recalls serious political developments that changed the course of Afghanistan's political history.

[Correspondent] Thirty years ago to the day¸ a military coup was staged against the government of Daud Khan. This is the Qowai-e Charom area. on the morning of 7 Sowr, a convoy moved towards the centre of the city from this area. Air raids led by unit No 17 [as heard] from Bagram airport targeted the presidential palace.

The operation was a strong blow that broke the resistance of Daud Khan, who had personally taken up arms to fight those behind the coup.

The 7 Sowr coup [also known as the Sowr Revolution] finally s! ucceeded, and the Hezb-e Democratic Khalq-e Afghanistan party led by Nur Mohammad Taraki, came to power in the evening of the same day. They then announced the establishment of a military council through the state-run radio station.

[Abdol Hamid Mobarez, political analyst] Since that day, Afghanistan has fallen victim to arguments between east and west, agreeing and disagreeing, policies. We suffer from the imbalance and negative consequences of that specific day till now.

[Correspondent] The 7 Sowr coup, which put an end to Mohammad Daud Khan's republican government, gave the history of Afghanistan a big change.

The first military movements aimed at toppling Mohammad Daud Khan's government on the morning of 7 Sowr were, to some extent, a surprise to Daud Khan, but the possibility of such a change could be felt at least 10 days before the coup was actually carried out.

[Abdol Kabir Ranjbar, MP for Kabul Province] It has had extremely negative consequ! ences in the history of Afghanistan. We feel the negative consequences till today. We [means those behind the coup] staged a coup in the absence of the people of Afghanistan in spite of the demand of the people on 7 Sowr. We fought, and then imposed ourselves on the people of Afghanistan through a war and a coup, without the people wanting it.

[Correspondent] Some believe when Mohammad Daud Khan started to arrest leaders of Hezb-e Democratic Khalq-e Afghanistan party following the killing of Mir Akbar Khaybar [a prominent member of Hezb-e Democratic Khalq-e Afghanistan party, Parcham branch], the leaders of the party contacted the Russian embassy in Kabul and obtained Russian support for the coup.

[Sayd Eshaq Gelani, MP, in Pashto] While speaking to Brezhnev, Sardar Mohammad Daud banged on the desk with anger. I think that was the last day of [support by] the Soviets, specifically by Brezhnev [for the Daud government]. They might have though this particular person [Daud] was no use to them in the neighbouring country because [they ! thought] he was self-centred and arrogant.

[Correspondent] Experts look at the causes of the Russian support of the 7 Sowr coup from different angles. Some believe one of the reasons for the then Russian support was the gradual advance of Russian troops towards the south and the opportunity for them to have access to warm waters and strategic targets in the region. Secondly, some believe it was because these objectives and the interests of the Soviets were at risk in Afghanistan.

A number of analysts say 7 Sowr is one of the days that led to hunger, poverty, and migration of millions of Afghans, and resulted in social, political, and cultural disasters.

They believe the 7 Sowr coup destroyed the foundation of the government of Afghanistan that could, with all its shortcomings, be called a government and had a history of hundreds of years.

Experts say the invasion of Afghanistan by the Russian Red Army on 6 Jadi 1358 [27 Dec 1979] was one of the outco! mes of the 7 Sowr coup.

[Khodai Nazar Sarmachar, MP] Daud Khan s taged a coup and came to power with the help of members of the party [Hezb-e Democratic Khalq-e Afghanistan party], and when he showed no loyalty to the promises he had made to members of the party, and even wanted to hang the party leaders, they toppled his government because they were extremely powerful within the system on that time. I do not see any reason to relate the coup with Russia.

[Correspondent] The 7 Sowr coup, in some people's view, was the beginning of a big tragedy in Afghanistan - a tragedy the consequences of which have led to destruction and bloodshed in the country in the past three decades.

A number of experts believe the victory of the mojahedin [against the then communist government] on 8 Sowr could also not end the people's problems.

This come at a time when 8 Sowr is scheduled to be celebrated as jihad victory celebration day at a special ceremony here tomorrow [27 April].

Afghan traders to import 50,000 tonnes of flour, wheat from Russia

Excerpt from report by privately-owned Afghan Aina TV on 24 April

[Presenter] Afghan traders will import 50,000 tonnes of wheat and flour from Russia over the next few days. Their price will be 10 to 30 per cent lower than prices at markets in the region. Mohammad Mohsen Amiri, head of the Etefaq Group, told a joint news conference with officials of Afghanistan's Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Kabul on Thursday [24 April].

Meanwhile, Khan Jan Olkozai, deputy head of Afghanistan's Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said that the government was mainly responsible for the increase in the price of basic commodities in the country. He said that security officials and municipalities receive illegal taxes along highways from traders who import flour and wheat and that this has increased the price of basic commodities in the country.

[Correspondent] Mohammad Mohsen Amiri, head of Etefaq Group, said that Afghan traders signed two contracts with two wheat companies in Russia and that they will import 50,000 tonnes of flour ! and wheat to the country over the next few days and their price will be 10 to 30 per cent lower than prices at markets in the region.

[Mohammad Mohsen Amiri] Agreements were signed with two reliable Russian companies. They have considerable wheat and flour available to be exported to Afghanistan. According to the agreement, they will bring first class and second class flour and first class and second class wheat to Hayratan border town at 10 to 30 per cent less than prices at markets in the region.

[Correspondent] Meanwhile, Azarakhsh Hafezi, a member of the board of directors of Afghanistan's Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the government's allocation of 50m dollars for buying food from neighbouring countries had come too late. He said that a joint commission should be set up between the Commerce Ministry and Afghanistan's Chamber of Commerce and Industry to reduce the price of basic commodities and use this money appropriately.

[Correspondent ] Meanwhile, a number of traders who import flour and wheat to Afghanistan have called on the government to hold talks with Pakistani officials over the opening of that country's roads to Afghanistan. They said that the import of wheat from Pakistan could be cheaper than from Iran and Kazakhstan.

[An unidentified trader] The government should contact Pakistan by any possible means.

[An unidentified trader] We want our government to officially request that the Pakistani government open highways which are closed.

[Correspondent] The Afghan parliament has declared the security and economic situation a state of emergency because of the increase in the price of basic commodities and the crisis in the country. It called on the international community to further help overcome this crisis economically and financially.

Unemployment, price rises turning into "serious" problems - Afghan TV

Text of report by Afghan independent Tolo TV, on 25 April

[Presenter] Unemployment has turned into a serious problem in Afghanistan and food prices and unemployment are also on the rise in the country. Meanwhile a number of people in the capital complain about a lack of income and increase in food prices.

Ghafur Saburi is reporting.

[Correspondent] It is now 1100, and around 300 to 400 people, mostly young men and teenagers, are looking for labour work in the Kotisangi square. These young men ask the government to pay attention to the improvement of peoples economic condition.

[Unidentified man, in Dari] These poor people do not have even a penny to buy food. As they earn no money, they feel embarrassed before their families, children and wives when they return home.

[Another unidentified man, in Dari] When a rich person comes here to hire labourers, dozens of the labourers gather around him to be picked up so that they can feed their children.

[Another unidentified man, in Dari] None of them! [officials], including the MPs, have fulfilled their promises. Even the president, which we voted for him, has not fulfilled his promises.

[Correspondent] Hundreds of labourers wander on the streets and squares of Kabul hoping to find work, but they cannot find any.

[Another unidentified man, in Dari] You [the president] promised to the people. Did you promise to annihilate them or improve their economy!

[Another unidentified man, in Dari] Around 500 to 600 people come to this square every day to find work, only some 30 of may find work.

[Correspondent] Over the past five years, hundreds of Afghan families returned from Iran and Pakistan, but most of them went back to these countries due to a lack of employment opportunities in Afghanistan.

Insecurity halts poppy eradication drive in 10 southern Afghan districts

Text of report by Afghan independent Tolo TV, on 25 April

[Presenter] The poppy eradication campaign has been stopped in 10 districts of [southern] Kandahar Province.

The head of the counter-narcotics department in the province says the decision was taken after disturbances were created in the Maywand District. He, however, said that the poppy eradication campaign is continuing in the Spin Boldak District.

Gholam Mohammad Masumi is reporting from Kandahar City.

[Correspondent] Kandahar, Helmand, Zabol an Urozgan are the provinces where the bulk of the poppy cultivation takes place and the Afghan authorities say one of the reasons behind the increase in poppy cultivation is insecurity in these provinces.

[Head of Kandahar's counter narcotics department Gol Mohammad Shukran, in Pashto] We faced disturbances twice during the poppy eradication campaign in the Maywand District in which we suffered casualties and financial loss. The campaign is still continuing. You better know that the people even call! ed for the Interior Ministry's special units in Helmand Province [to continue the poppy eradication campaign], but we have been successful in carrying out the eradication campaign in Kandahar through local police. Despite that the poppy eradication campaign has been stopped due to security reasons and will soon restart.

[Correspondent] Officials in Kandahar Province say this year they destroyed around 20,000 jeribs [one jerib equals one fifth of a hectare] of poppy fields.

NATO's mission in Afghanistan - success or failure?

Opinion analylsis, 25/ 04/ 2008

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - NATO is widely believed to be completely losing control of the situation in Afghanistan to the Taliban. The recent summit in Bucharest did not dispel this opinion.

Now some details are becoming clear. It appears that at the summit, Germany ignored the U.S. appeal to the participants in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan to send more troops to that country. Other major ISAF members, such as France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey did not show much enthusiasm, either.

The same is true of Washington's major allies in the anti-terrorist coalition - Canada and the United Kingdom. The NATO-led ISAF mission and the U.S.-led anti-terrorist coalition are operating in Afghanistan in parallel.

In this context, many Russian and Western observers are very pessimistic about the situation in Afghanistan. They are calling into doubt both NATO's peacemaking potential, and its ability to cope with the Afghan reality. Some maintain that a bad situation is rapidly getting worse, and that NATO and Hamid Karzai's government control only Kabul, or a mere 10% of Afghan territory. Are these statements an exaggeration?

However, official Afghan sources - the defense, interior, and foreign ministers - describe the current situation in the country as promising, and maintain that the Taliban control only 10% of Afghan territory. Yet these statements contradict expert opinion.

Most experts assessing the situation in Afghanistan proceed from acts of terror in Kabul. These attacks, especially suicide attacks (which are not typical to the Afghan mentality), can hardly be considered a manifestation of an organized political, religious, or social movement. As a rule, acts of terror are committed by a handful of individuals, and this is why it is difficult to counter them.

There are other factors as well, for instance, massive artillery attacks on administrative centers in the provinces, which are also difficult to prevent, but for the opposite reason - unlike acts of terror, they are carried out by relatively numerous forces. In effect, they are contrary to acts of terror.

It appears that the last massive attack on Kabul was mounted in December 2003. But what about the massive artillery attacks on administrative centers in Afghanistan's northern provinces, such as Kunduz, Mazar-i-Sharif, or Baghlan, which were neither stable in times of peace, nor safe in times of trouble? Statistics is zero in this case, too, which is a tell-tale fact. And in general opinion, the situation in the north is relatively stable compared with the east and the south.

There, the Taliban, and Gulbaddin Hekmatiyar's Islamic Party of Afghanistan (IPA), another armed opponent of Kabul, hold traditionally strong positions, but not strong enough for a large-scale offensive. It would be natural to ask whether the Taliban's armed opposition to the current regime has a social base, and if so, how broad it is.

The presidential and parliamentary elections have shown that Karzai's course enjoys the support of the major part of the population, and that even more people welcome NATO's presence in the country as a guarantor of security and future stability. This suggests only a rump of support for the Taliban and other armed opposition groups.

In the past few months, leaders of the former Northern Alliance - ex-President Burhanuddin Rabbani, and former Defense Minister Mohammad Fahim - have held talks with the Taliban and the IPA on the prospect of reconciliation between the rebels and the central government.

These talks represent a landmark. In effect, they are aimed at national reconciliation. This points to the central government's confidence in its powers, and part of the credit for this must certainly go to NATO.

Initially, ISAF was not only concerned with ensuring security in the regions, where a host of other international and national agencies were working to rehabilitate the economy, restoring schools, hospitals, and water supply systems, and clearing mines. It was also supposed to help Afghanistan create its own national army, police and auxiliary units. NATO has also been charged with the same tasks, and now Afghanistan has its own army and police. And they are working, if not perfectly.

In fact NATO's peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan is probably one of the most successful, considering the magnitude of its tasks, the Afghan reality, and the divisions inside the alliance itself as to stepping up the bloc's presence in that country. But a crisis in NATO is one thing, and the crisis of NATO in Afghanistan is another.

NATO should reinforce its contingent in Afghanistan by all means possible, if only because this will considerably strengthen Kabul's hand at the talks with the armed opposition, all the more so now that a possibility of national reconciliation has emerged.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti

Afghan TV says Taleban call to stop death penalty verdict deceitful

Excerpt from report by privately-owned Afghan Aina TV on 24 April

[Presenter] Aina TV today analysed the Supreme Court's death penalty verdicts to around 100 prisoners and the Taleban's call on the international community to stop the verdicts. Please pay attention to it.

[Correspondent] It is the government's responsibility to implement the Shari'ah law and promote rule of law in our country. The judicial branch issues orders and the executive branch puts them into actions.

The media has lately reported that 100 criminals, who are accused of murder, plunder, abductions, terrorism, etc., have been sentenced to death. They will be executed after President Karzai's approval. Meanwhile, the Taleban, who are known by killing, decapitating and hanging our innocent compatriots without trial, raised their voice as if they are against the verdicts.

When Afghan President Mr Karzai got this news, he surprisingly said that it was strange that the Taleban were making such a plea. He said that he would welcome it [the Taleban! 's call] and would be very much careful in issuing the final order. It would be good if the Afghan president had said like this [as received], because they held two workers of a Chinese road construction company on the very same day and decapitated them very mercilessly. They have killed dozens of others in different provinces of the country, in Helmand, Nimroz, Kandahar, Zabol, Konar and Ghazni, through suicide and terrorist attacks. This process is continuing.

It seems that the Taleban are making this plea based on humanity and new ideology, but to deceive public opinion and raise themselves as a power. [Passage omitted: more on Taleban killings]

Two Fronts, Same Worries

Washingtonpost.com, By David Ignatius Sunday, April 27, 2008; Page B07

KABUL -- For many Americans who are weary of Iraq, Afghanistan is the "good war" in which the United States and its European allies are destroying what's left of al-Qaeda and the Taliban. That view certainly holds with the Democratic presidential candidates, who talk of adding troops in Afghanistan next year even as they pull troops out of Iraq.

But "bad" Iraq has more in common with "good" Afghanistan than people sometimes realize. Both have evolved into classic counterinsurgencies with a "clear and hold" strategy for providing security; both show the benefits of a military surge; both run the risk of failure because of weak and corrupt host governments.

Soon, the same U.S. commander -- Gen. David Petraeus -- will be overseeing both battlefields. If confirmed in the new post as head of Central Command, Petraeus will have to balance U.S. military needs in Iraq with those in Afghanistan. Given that Petraeus literally wrote the book on counterinsurgency for the military, his oversight should be good for both theaters.

The military surge in Afghanistan has largely gone unnoticed, in part because the U.S. commitment here is so much smaller. The 40-nation coalition force has increased to about 62,000 from about 42,000 in 2006. The American contribution is by far the largest, with more than 30,000 troops, including a new boost of 3,200 Marines just dispatched to southern Afghanistan, the area of the toughest fighting. Last year, the United States spent $4.9 billion on training and equipment for the Afghan army, after spending $3.5 billion during the preceding five years combined, according to a U.S. official.

"Without question, additional U.S. troops would be helpful in 2009," says Gen. Dan K. McNeill, the commander of coalition forces here. In particular, he's looking for new troops to take over from the 3,200 newly arrived Marines when they go home in October.

The success of the Afghanistan surge is clear in the east, which has been the main area of U.S. responsibility. McNeill doubled U.S. troops and spending there last year and added some innovative counterinsurgency tactics using the so-called Provincial Reconstruction Teams. These PRTs are building roads and schools and carrying out other development projects to help the Afghan government hold areas once they have been cleared by U.S. troops.

McNeill, like Petraeus in Iraq, has worked to isolate the hard-core enemy from those who can be co-opted. He describes his adversary not as the Taliban (some of whom have joined the Afghan parliament) but as extremist warlords who give support to al-Qaeda.

To bolster the Afghan police, McNeill adopted a new strategy for the country's 40 most violent districts, known as Focused District Development. Each month, police are pulled from a half-dozen of these districts and replaced by an elite national force, while the local cops are retrained and the most corrupt and incompetent are purged.

Despite (or perhaps because of) McNeill's success in attacking insurgents' havens, they are turning to Iraq-style suicide bombings. The latest data show that combined military and civilian casualties are up 43 percent so far this year compared with 2007, with more than half of that total coming from suicide attacks and 72 percent in the volatile southern region.

This insecurity is compounded by the failings of the government of President Hamid Karzai. "What we see is a government that is weak and corrupt," says Yonus Qanooni, the speaker of the Afghan parliament. He's a leader of the opposition, so his comment isn't surprising, but he expresses a frustration with the Karzai government that's widely shared here.

William Wood, the U.S. ambassador, tries to put Afghanistan's two trends into perspective: "There is deterioration in terms of personal security. People are more frightened. It's the problems with the police; it's corruption; it's weak local governance." At the same time, he stresses, "national security is stronger. The insurgents won't unseat the government. They won't take over provincial capitals. They won't win."

Wood and McNeill are working with Karzai to tackle the political problems before they overwhelm the battlefield gains. The Afghans have created a new local governance directorate to weed out poor performers. Since last August, they've sacked eight of 34 provincial governors. The government says it is also trying to reduce opium production, a problem that keeps getting worse because of what analysts say is high-level corruption.

It's easier to be optimistic here than in Iraq, in part because the Afghan sense of nationhood is so much stronger. But what's striking is how many common themes one finds in these two conflicts -- and how many opportunities to apply lessons learned on one battlefield to the other.

The writer is co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.

Try 'Pakistan First'

Washigton post - By Jim Hoagland Sunday, April 27, 2008; Page B07

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama offer the same beguiling Democratic version of the global war on terrorism: Get out of Iraq and put more U.S. forces into Afghanistan to win that conflict decisively. Republicans are also increasingly urging President Bush to adopt an Afghanistan-first policy.

"The basic failure in priorities" in Bush's war on terrorism lies "in the fact that our monthly investment in Iraq is $10 billion a month and $2 billion a month in Afghanistan," writes David Abshire, a GOP elder statesman, in "A Call to Greatness," a new book intended to set the agenda for the next presidency. When a Republican White House loses a seasoned foreign policy thinker such as Abshire on a key issue, it has big problems.

So does the solution that is being pushed. A major shift in resources into Afghanistan may not significantly help in that battle in the near term. Decisions on drawing down forces in Iraq should be based on conditions there -- as Gen. David Petraeus argued to Congress this month -- and not on campaign-fostered illusions that troop numbers and money alone can turn the tide against terrorists in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Bush's decision last week to put Petraeus in charge of the Pentagon's Central Command and thus of the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan will intensify this Iraq vs. Afghanistan argument on Capitol Hill. Critics see the Petraeus promotion as a Bush ploy to keep Iraq the "central front" in the war on terrorism and to continue to shirk the war in Afghanistan .

That sells Petraeus short and ignores the reality that the war in Afghanistan will not be won or lost in Afghanistan alone. It must also be won inside Pakistan, where things go from bad to worse for U.S. policy, which has been a set of forlorn wishes that seem to boomerang.

President Pervez Musharraf, after a breathtaking exercise in compulsively and systematically destroying his own rule, sits by silently while a civilian-led, democratically elected government takes charge in Islamabad and narrows U.S. options.

The new regime is cutting back even on Musharraf's already feeble efforts to curb the movements of al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other Islamic extremist forces that operate in Afghanistan from sanctuaries in the remote tribal frontier regions of Pakistan known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Officials in Islamabad hint that flights over FATA by U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles based in Afghanistan may soon be forbidden. These Predator missions gather intelligence and strike enemy targets with precision. Their loss would be a major setback for the United States.

Equally alarming are reports that the government is shelving counterinsurgency efforts in the tribal areas in favor of dealing with Islamic militancy "through dialogue and development." Last week, this shift produced a new truce with Taliban forces in FATA and the announced release of Sufi Mohammad, the founder of an outlawed jihadist movement that fights in Afghanistan.

During his Washington visit, Petraeus struck me as grimly realistic about the trade-offs involved in pursuing the two-front war he soon will command. The need for more troops on the Afghan front is clear. The opportunity to use them for decisive victory is clouded. It is unlikely to exist as long as Pakistan offers sanctuary to al-Qaeda and its allies. Pakistan's political evolution is in fact a more important immediate factor than shifting U.S. resources from Iraq.

Obama asserted last summer that as president he would strike at terrorists in Pakistan if the Pakistani government would not act on intelligence he considered sound. Increasingly it looks as though, if elected, he will get the chance to do just that -- but he would then be acting against a duly elected civilian government, not the unpopular Musharraf.

The promotion of Petraeus is also a strong vote of confidence by Defense Secretary Robert Gates in the view that U.S. forces must urgently fight and win the counterinsurgency wars of the Middle East and Central Asia rather than concentrate resources on future conventional wars. A set of remarkably candid speeches by Gates on the internal struggle at the Pentagon on that issue have clearly put him in the Petraeus "fight-win" camp. They suggest that I understated Gates's commitment when I wrote about the differences within the Pentagon two weeks ago.

Pakistan, with its two dozen nuclear weapons, popular and official support for Kashmiri and Taliban terrorism, and political instability, is ultimately a greater threat to world peace than Afghanistan and Iraq combined. That is the unavoidable reality that campaign promises should not obscure.

Editorial: Mehsud deal

The News International April 27, 2008

A 15-point accord, under which the Mehsud tribesmen of South Waziristan would be barred from all illegal acts, in exchange for a withdrawal of troops from the region, is said to have been completed. Only the "t"s remain to be crossed and the "i"s dotted before Mehsud elders and government representatives sign the deal, intended to restore peace in the tribal territory and indeed across the country. Even as the deal is being finalized, a car bombing in Mardan which killed three people, including a police sub-inspector, came as a reminder that the terrorist threat still lurks everywhere. It cannot disappear overnight, and as yet there is no way of telling how effective, or how sustainable the new deal with the tribesmen who control South Waziristan is to be. Also, as reports seem to suggest, the car bomb was carried out by the Taliban so doubts arise as to their sincerity in pursuing a peace deal with the authorities and also in relation to the longevity of such an agreement. After all, two previous efforts to reach accord with them eventually broke down and Pakistan came out the loser because that enabled the extremists to regroup and come out stronger.

The terms of the new deal seek from the Mehsuds three primary commitments: the release of over 100 military and government officials they currently hold; an end to abductions and suicide attacks and the ouster of foreign militants based in the area. The Frontier Corps would also be permitted free movement across the area. The military ahs reportedly been informed of the contents of the accord and has backed it. For the moment, it is obvious a degree of goodwill prevails on all sides. Baitullah Mehsud, the military commander of the tribesmen, has already announced a truce and an end to suicide bombings. The fact that the PPP seems to have no problems doing deals with Baitullah also suggests that they are unconvinced that he played a part in last year"s murder of Benazir Bhutto.

The accord, almost certainly, will bring short-term peace to the area. The real question is whether it can be sustained long-term. The Waziristan and other tribal areas have served as a base for terrorist activity for a number of years now. Evidence has emerged of madressahs located there playing a part in the training of suicide bombers and the recruitment of fighters. The government then needs also to ensure the accord does not become a means giving militants in the area breathing space and time allowing them to re-group, re-organize and emerge as a still stronger force. Longer-term strategies that can counter this threat must also be put in place. Otherwise, the risks in the years ahead may prove too great to overcome.

On the basis of principle and morality, there must also be some ethical questions regarding doing business with men who are known murderers and for whom violence is a legitimate means to enforce authority. The accounts of beheadings, stoning and persecution in tribal areas have been told often and are too frequent to be simply brushed under a carpet of goodwill. Many who opposed militants have been driven away. Hundreds of families have been displaced. The accord as such may offer short-term peace. This is the most immediate and most urgent need. But for the future, there must be some question as to what else is required to rescue people of the area from the zealots who control their lives and have imposed a reign of misery that has greatly affected education, farming and livelihood in the territory. This has to involve a long-term plan to improve the region"s economy and to set aside funds for massive sustained socio-economic and infrastructural development. Only by doing so can longer-term peace be ensured and the Waziri people rescued from the clutches of the militias and extremists who have established a stranglehold over their lives.

Opinion: Pakistan’s security and NWFP peace plan

The News International April 27, 2008
Khalid Aziz

The government of NWFP proposes to place before the next session of the provincial assembly a comprehensive peace plan. This plan has been prepared by the ANP Task Force and is now under discussion at the national and provincial levels. The plan favours a multi-dimensional approach, instead of focusing only on a military solution. However, the success of this plan will depend on implementation of a similar intervention in FATA.

Peace and security cannot be achieved in NWFP without first having it in FATA. Secondly, NWFP cannot implement reforms in Malakand unless this area is excluded from the purview of Articles 246-247 of the Constitution, which places Malakand outside NWFP"s control.

The debate on the peace plan provides an opportunity to positively influence the security policies of the US in this region. If global security requires Pakistan to remedy a socio-political crisis emerging from an Islamist movement in Pakistan, then, in all fairness, it must be ensured that an indigenous Pakistani plan is used for solving the problem. Only a few days ago, the US accountability office criticised the US executive branch and stated: "The United States has not met its national security goals to destroy terrorist threats and close the safe haven in Pakistan"s FATA." It then went on to say that the US relied on the Pakistani military to address US national security goals.

Three conclusions can be derived from this statement. Firstly, that the goal of fighting terrorism was established by the US. It is not known whether Pakistan was consulted in the formulation of this objective. It is apparent that had Pakistan been engaged, the goal would not have been the destruction of the terrorist threat but the transformation of FATA into a stable society.

Secondly, the goal of destruction implies the use of military force alone. In the typology of counter-insurgency, it signifies reliance on coercion and a shift away from a rule-of-law approach; this invites further radicalization.

Thirdly, it is evident that the present crisis of the Pakistani state is mainly a consequence of the implementation of a security policy based on the use of military force alone. The use of force and violence results in a Faustian transformation of the state with adverse results.

For example, it has led to the creation of new issues relating to violation of human rights by implementing a policy without legal oversight. It is widely known that removal of the chief justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, resulted from his insistence that the government should account for the missing persons who had been arrested by the military. It is learnt that under the cover of stamping out terrorism, Pakistan arrested scores of Baloch tribesmen, especially Marris and Bugtis. They and others languish in jails for expressing ethnic grievances. When intelligence agencies fail to prove a terrorism charge, the accused is retained in jail under other false cases.

By concentrating on FATA, the US began a spoiling action conducted by the Pakistani military. This operation attracted hardcore radical elements like Uzbeks, Afghan Taliban and the Kashmiri jihadis into FATA. However, the February election conflicted with the launching of a major operation. Had this operation occurred we would have lost substantial control over NWFP"s districts.

Briefly, a spoiling strategy is not meant to solve a crisis but to deflect it from the US mainland. Presently, there are five such major spoiling actions underway: in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Philippines/Indonesia and Peninsular Arabia. US military strategy since World War II has relied on this approach – Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan are all examples. Under this strategy there is no outright victory but a highlighting of an issue and its transformation from a grievance to the crime of terrorism!

A major after-effect of a spoiling operation is institutional damage caused to the country in which it occurs. Signs of institutional breakdown are clearly visible in the tribal areas and in NWFP. This approach has thus created a security McCarthyism. Instead of the proverbial fear of a communist hiding behind every bush we now have a terrorist. This paradigm is conceptually flawed. Sadly, what makes the threat of terrorism a self- fulfilling prophecy is the structure of the US security system and it"s slicing of the world into five military regions – and CENTCOM is the best known to us.

It is natural that if the US views the world from a military paradigm alone, then proposals meant to solve issues would be channelled through the same military institutions. Such a security philosophy means permanent war, tension and global instability. Since Pakistan now has a political government it should begin a meaningful dialogue with the US leading to a change of the paradigm and instead persuade it to rely on a transformation strategy for dealing with radical violence. Securing peace will not be easy, given the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan, which has always been anathema to the Afghans. But an attempt must be made.

The new NWFP government has been discussing a comprehensive peace plan. It is a mid-term three- year proposal costing about $4 billion and aims at reducing the insurgency by 30 per cent. Its other objectives are the reduction of attacks on security forces, sharply curtailing suicide bombings, the retrieval of physical space lost to the militants and re-establishing the writ of the state.

Some of the highlights of the plan are: an increase of 14,000 men in the police and the constabulary, establishment of permanent regional religious peace conferences, and regulating the entry and qualification of prayer leaders. A Rs600 million rural endowment fund will be established for mobilisation of 4,000 village peace committees. Besides their role in securitisation of rural areas, they will work in tandem with other rural organisations for distribution of micro credit and other services.

Five hundred madressahs will be upgraded for imparting marketable skills to students. One of the core programmes is the rehabilitation of 12,000 former militants. To reduce poverty, 7,000 new jobs per annum are planned for educated youths. More than ten thousand new daily wages jobs will be provided through implementation of infrastructure projects.

The main threat to the plan comes from the worsening financial position of the country. Rising inflation and a looming fiscal deficit will endanger its implementation. Thus, dependency on external resources is inevitable. There are some indications that assistance may be provided by Saudi Arabia, the US and Pakistan"s other donor friends.

While the plan is given shape, the NWFP peace process has started with the signing of an agreement between the government and the leadership of the TSNM on April 20. Confronting insurgencies is a long-term effort, which may last from 15 to 20 years. However, social and political reforms coupled with effective empowerment and democratisation will go a long way in re-establishing peace. NWFP has indicated the will to change the situation. Pakistan"s future is linked to the success of this strategy.

Editorial: Pipe dream

The News International April 26, 2008

After many years of discussion and deliberation, an agreement has finally been signed in Islamabad under which Pakistan, Afghanistan and India would be able to buy natural gas from the Central Asian Republic of Turkmenistan. The gas would be piped in from the Daulatabad field in Turkmenistan to Fazilka on the India-Pakistan border, after making its way through vast stretches of Afghan and Pakistan territory. The 56-inch diameter pipe will supply 3.2 billion cubic feet of gas a day. The complex task of laying the pipe will cost an estimated US $7.6 billion and supplies would, under the deal, start in 2015. The gas from Turkmenistan proposal has been on the table for the past five years. An earlier agreement involving Pakistan and Afghanistan was revised to include India as ties between the two South Asian neighbours improved over the past few years. The delay in reaching agreement has meant an acceleration in the cost for laying the pipeline, but oil ministers from all four countries believe it is still feasible. Separate agreements on transit and tariff fees are being worked out between India and Pakistan.

With the signing of the deal with Turkmenistan, the similar proposal for a pipe from Iran to India across Pakistan effectively fizzles out. This is partly an outcome of US efforts to dissuade the countries from reaching an accord with Iran -- which it feared could bolster, both in economic and diplomatic terms, the standing of a country Washington now sees as a prime enemy. Beyond underscoring Washington's ability to influence international events of all kinds, the pipeline will make a long-standing dream come true, enabling India, Pakistan and Afghanistan to meet soaring energy needs through fuel piped in across borders and across vast stretches of land in several nations. Certainly, the project should help meet the soaring demand for energy. The gas crisis witnessed in Pakistan last winter, as supply to both domestic and industrial consumers stuttered amid a dwindling of reserves, is a reminder of the need to plan well ahead of time for the future. The fact that today, all power consumers in the country spend up to ten hours a day deprived of the utility they pay for, shows the pitfalls of failing to carry out such advance thinking.

But the pipeline will also do more than simply pump in gas. For one, it should help play a part in building closer links between Pakistan, India and Afghanistan. After all, the countries will depend on the goodwill of their neighbours to ensure fuel continues to flow across borders and this in turn will boost the incentive for cordial ties. The pipeline will also pose new security challenges for Pakistan and Afghanistan, with apprehensions over possible terrorist attacks having held back progress for years on the project -- and as such makes it all the more imperative that the two countries make all-out efforts to ensure greater writ of the state within their troubled territories, so that these factors do not in the years ahead threaten the new pipeline project and all that it has to offer the countries who have signed the landmark agreement.

[Disclaimer: The content of this news bulletin does not necessarily reflect the view or policy of the Afghan Government, unless specifically stated as such. The collection of articles and commentaries from Afghan and international news sources is provided for informational purposes, and accuracy of the news is the responsibility of the original source.]