In this bulletin:

• Nato offensive 'kills 30 Taleban' – BBC
• U.S. hands major weapons supplies to Afghan army
• Increase in troops to Afghanistan
• Karzai security adviser rules out talks with Taliban
• At site of NATO's largest Afghan ground battle, race is on to prevent Taliban return
• NATO wants to bolster Afghan border police: Kampman
• Afghan Parliament Grants Immunity To War Criminals
• Afghan call for say in aid likely to go unheard
• Afghanistan's local insurgency
• The Afghanistan Surge
• 200 more Afghan pilgrims held
• Govt links suicide blasts to Taliban – The News Int.
• Linking US aid to terror war effort Pakistan expects balanced bill: FO
• MacKay says Afghanistan Compact balances mission
• Militants torch school in Afghanistan
• Dr Sharifa Sharif new presidential advisor
• More reconstruction projects for Kandahar, Uruzgan
• Rebuilding and reconciliation
• Pashtun Hold Key to Afghan-Pakistani Border Issues

Nato offensive 'kills 30 Taleban' – BBC

At least 30 suspected Taleban fighters have been killed in a ground and air attack by Nato-led forces in southern Afghanistan, local police said. Troops surrounded a rebel base in the Kajaki area of Helmand province and fought a five-hour battle, they said.

Nato confirmed the clash but has not commented on the casualties. The attack comes ahead of a predicted surge in Taleban activity for the spring. Last year saw a record number of insurgent attacks.

Helmand police chief Ghulam Nabi Mulakhel said 15 rebel fighters were wounded in addition to those killed. Helmand has seen a number of fierce battles over the past year.

There were no casualties among Afghan and Nato soldiers in the latest offensive. Mr Mulakhel said arms and ammunition were recovered, including heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

On Wednesday, Nato spokesman Brig Gen Richard Nugee said the organisation did not believe the Taleban were capable of a "spring offensive". Gen Nugee said: "There will be an upward surge in violence as the weather gets better."

But he added: "We believe that they have been degraded and are starting to appear in less good condition than they started last year." However, incoming US commander Maj Gen David Rodriguez has said he thinks suicide attacks this year will be even greater than last year's record 139.

U.S. hands major weapons supplies to Afghan army

KABUL, Feb 1 (Reuters) By Sayed Salahuddin - The Unites States handed over thousands of weapons and hundreds of vehicles to Afghanistan's fledgling national army on Thursday as part of its strategy to boost local security forces in the fight against the Taliban.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai attended the handover of 800 High Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicles and other trucks, and 12,000 heavy and light arms in Kabul.

"This is the first time that we have received such major help for strengthening our army," Afghan Defence Ministry spokesman Zahir Azimi said after the ceremony. Karzai described the package as "part of the tip of the iceberg" of the long-term U.S. commitment to Afghanistan.

The U.S. government is asking Congress for an extra $10.6 billion for Afghanistan -- $8.6 billion of that for helping the army and police -- over two years. Ahead of what U.S. and Afghan commanders warn will be a bloody spring offensive by the Taliban within months, Washington also doubled its ground combat troops by extending the tour of duty for some of its troops here by four months.

The moves come as the United States prepares to take over the 33,000-strong NATO-led force here from the British on Sunday and after the bloodiest year since the Taliban were ousted in 2001. About 4,000 people died in violence last year, mostly rebels but a quarter of them civilians and 170 of them foreign soldiers.

With billions more dollars in aid, Afghanistan also hopes to revive its air force, Azimi said, something Afghan officials say is vital in such a rugged country where land movement is limited.

Afghanistan's army disintegrated in 1992 after the overthrow of the Moscow-backed government by Western-funded Mujahideen (holy warrior) groups.

The country's air force, army, police and security agencies had until then been trained and equipped by the Soviet Union. The United States and other allies are helping rebuild, train and equip the army -- due to increase to 70,000 by 2008 from 38,000, as well as the police force.

There are more than 40,000 foreign soldiers in Afghanistan under NATO and under a separate U.S.-led coalition.

Many military and counter-insurgency analysts say the combined Afghan and foreign forces are not enough to fight the Taliban and other militants, many of whom shelter and train in safe havens in Pakistan.

Increase in troops to Afghanistan – BBC

Britain is to increase its military presence in southern Afghanistan by about 800 troops to 5,800. Defence Secretary Des Browne, who made the announcement, said the extra troops would be in place by late summer.

But the UK's overall deployment in Afghanistan will only increase by 300 because the military is also reducing its presence in Kabul by 500 personnel. The British troops are part of a 32,000-strong Nato force which is currently based in Afghanistan.

Britain's presence in the capital Kabul is to be reduced this weekend as it hands over command of the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force to the US. Britain will still have 140 British personnel stationed in Kabul to assist the ISAF.

The change in troop numbers come as 3 Commando Brigade of the Royal Marines prepares to end its tour of duty in Helmand in April. Mr Browne made the troop announcement in a written statement to MPs, in which he also confirmed that 3 Commando will be replaced by units drawn mainly from 12 Mechanised Brigade.

He also said that Harrier GR7 and GR9 jets, Apache attack helicopters, Viking all-terrain vehicles and Royal Engineer support units which are currently stationed in Helmand will remain there until April 2009.

Around 600 call-out notices are to be served on reservists, which will lead to around 420 posts being taken up. Former Nato Secretary-General Lord Carrington has previously accused France and Germany of "not pulling their weight" by providing troops for the south of the country, where the Taleban still has control over large areas.

The BBC's Alastair Leithead said many other countries do have troops in Afghanistan but also have "rules and regulations" which prevent them from going into the south, where the bulk of the fighting takes place.

Shadow defence secretary Liam Fox said there were "serious questions" about why Britain was taking an increased role when other countries in Nato were not doing the same.

"There have to be serious questions raised about why the British Army are shouldering yet more of the burden down in the south of Afghanistan," he said.

"It cannot be acceptable that British taxpayers are funding a greater proportion of the cost and the British military are shouldering a greater part of the burden in the most dangerous part of the country.

"Where are our Nato allies? This is simply not an acceptable long term position. "It is absolutely outrageous that when we have the concept of shared security we don't have properly shared risk."

Karzai security adviser rules out talks with Taliban

BERLIN - Reuters 01/31/2007 By Markus Krah - The Afghan government will not negotiate with the resurgent Taliban as a group, Afghanistan's national security adviser Zalmai Rassoul said on Wednesday.

In an interview in Berlin with Reuters, the adviser to President Hamid Karzai said there was "no way" the government could negotiate with the hardline Islamists even though Karzai offered peace talks on Monday, but without naming the Taliban.

"We have a reconciliation process," Rassoul said. "We have always said that all those who are fighting today, when they drop their gun and accept the Afghanistan constitution, they are most welcome.

"But with the Taliban as a political, ideological or military institution, we cannot talk, no way -- they are terrorists." Karzai offered peace talks on Monday after the bloodiest year since the Taliban were driven from power in 2001.

More than 4,000 people, including about 170 foreign soldiers, died in fighting in 2006, which saw a sharp jump in suicide bombings. Taliban commanders have warned of a massive summer offensive this year.

Karzai made his offer while speaking at a religious gathering in Kabul on one of the holiest days of the Shia Islamic calendar, but he did not specifically name the Taliban.

Rassoul made clear the reconciliation is for individuals. "We welcome all those who are dropping their guns and accepting our constitution. There is one condition: that they have not committed human rights abuses in Afghanistan. That is something no government can accept, and the Afghan people will not accept that."

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said in Berlin on Monday there was no point in negotiating with the Taliban, since they were only interested in harming Afghanistan and undermining efforts to build democracy.

NATO has 32,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan, some of whom have been trying to drive Taliban fighters out of the south since August. The Taliban have vowed to drive out foreign troops and overthrow Karzai and his government.

The insurgents and their Islamic allies are mostly active in the southern and eastern areas bordering Pakistan. The Taliban, NATO and U.S. commanders say there will be bloody violence within months, with the approach of spring as the snows thaw.

At site of NATO's largest Afghan ground battle, race is on to prevent Taliban return

The Associated Press - Tuesday, January 30, 2007

SPERWAN GHAR, Afghanistan - Gunfire rang out from every hedgerow, irrigation ditch and storage hut. The leaves on the raisin-grape vines had grown so thick that U.S. Special Forces soldiers couldn't see the muzzle flashes from the AK-47s aimed their way.

NATO said more than 500 militants were killed in the operation last autumn to clear Taliban from the Panjwayi district of southern Afghan's Kandahar province, but now there are fears they could return.

It was the alliance's largest ground battle in Afghanistan, one so important that former southern NATO commander Canadian Brig. Gen. David Fraser wrote in a September letter to U.S. and NATO military leaders that "it is no exaggeration to say that the future of NATO, and of Afghanistan, hung in the balance."

Today, as U.S. Special Forces Humvees roll through the barren, winter grape fields, children in dirty clothes wave and smile.

Special Forces soldiers are training the Afghan army and police, and the Canadians are reopening schools and running medical clinics to try to win over residents so they will refuse sanctuary to Taliban fighters.

But the question hangs in the air: Will the plan succeed, or will the fighters return? "In August, we had a failing security situation here in the south, no doubt about it," said Lt. Col. Donald C. Bolduc, commander of U.S. Special Forces in southern Afghanistan.

Bolduc, with two months left on his current rotation, said that attacks are already up by about 30 percent over his 2005 tour. He expects more.

"I believe the enemy is going to attempt to conduct attacks in the spring and summer," he said. "If we do not get the Afghan national security forces in place before that, it will be very problematic."

When about 2,000 fighters moved into Panjwayi last autumn with the apparent aim of overrunning Kandahar city, the Taliban's former stronghold 25 kilometers (15 miles) to the east, an estimated 20,000 Afghan families loaded up trucks, carts and donkeys and fled, leaving watermelons and grapes to rot on the vine.

NATO and U.S. Special Forces entered the region in September on a mission dubbed Operation Medusa. They found a "well-equipped, well trained force, not like we've seen before," said Rusty, a Special Forces captain. Under Special Forces rules for embedded journalists, soldiers may not be fully identified.

Outnumbered Special Forces soldiers repelled Taliban attacks from a hilltop school that now serves as a NATO base. Aircraft supported U.S. and Canadian ground forces, but almost every fighter jet ran out of ammunition.

"Every hedgerow, every irrigation ditch, every grape hut had fire coming from it," Rusty said. Kandahar Gov. Asadullah Khalid said Panjwayi was weak because it only had 45 police and not enough soldiers.

Khalid said that today the situation is "completely changed," with Panjwayi not seeing a roadside or suicide bomb attack in over a month. He said 90 percent of the population supports the government, while the other 10 percent still back the Taliban and drug mafia.

Col. Ahmed Habib, an Afghan army commander, said the Taliban has historically sown fear in local residents; they beheaded two men in the nearby village of Talukan last month.

But Habib insists that more Afghans now trust the country's security forces, telling authorities when roadside bombs are planted. However, military success came at a cost to civilian life that didn't help NATO's mission to win residents' support.

Forty-eight civilians died in the operation, many from NATO bombs or gunfire targeting Taliban militants who were hiding in villagers' homes, said the governor's spokesman, Dawood Ahmadi. Of the 20,000 families who fled, about 70 percent have returned, he said.

On a recent morning security patrol, Special Forces soldiers pass dozens of tall, mud-brown huts where farmers dry their grapes. Airstrikes had destroyed many of the huts, favored by Taliban fighters because bullets cannot penetrate the thick mud walls. Troops had plowed new roads through grape fields, upsetting some farmers.

Mohammad Khan, 45, said NATO had offered him money for his ruined land, but not enough. "They destroyed all my land, and they said I can either take the money or not," he said.

However, Mohammad Nabi, 35, sees the destruction as the price of progress. "Some people are unhappy because their fields are being destroyed, but if the government is going to help them, I think it's OK. We also want to have roads."

A "massive" development campaign started in Panjwayi three weeks ago, said Shaheer Shahriar, spokesman for the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development.

He said that work has begun on 16 of an expected 50 projects, and that the ministry has US$18 million (€13.9 million) in U.S. and Canadian aid for development projects in the province.

U.N. agencies like the World Food Program and UNICEF started work in the region in January. Spokesman Aleem Siddique said the U.N. is seeing some frustration among Afghans, but also some reasons for optimism.

Afghans praised the improved security as they recently lined up at a NATO medical clinic. "The Taliban were forcing us to give them food and water and a place to stay. We had no choice," said Sardam Mohammad, who brought his 4-year-old son for a checkup. "We're happy that the soldiers are here. If they leave, we won't be safe."

He said the Taliban had burned his children's school. "If they come back, we will stand up and fight," he said. NATO and U.S. forces hope that's true. Special Forces intelligence indicates that very few Taliban remain in Kandahar province, but that many have filtered into neighboring Helmand province, and could return.

One Special Forces soldier, a Sgt. 1st Class intelligence specialist, says he expects Taliban fighters to start "trickling in again at the end of next month." The fighting in Panjwayi could start up again then. "How well we do with the humanitarian work will dictate how successful (Taliban fighters) are," he said.

NATO wants to bolster Afghan border police: Kampman

By MURRAY BREWSTER - KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (CP) - NATO allies are examining ways to shore up and expand the Afghan border police to combat the influx of Taliban insurgents from Pakistan, says a senior Canadian officer.

The alliance has been under political pressure to beef up military border patrols and use high-tech surveillance to interdict the flow of illegal munitions and suicide bombers.

But Col. Mike Kampman says the long-term solution lies in building up border guards in much the same way the Afghan National Police and the Afghan army are being reconstituted.

"This is a big border area and a lot of people don't fully appreciate how easy it is to cross," said Kampman, who is chief of staff to Brig.-Gen. Ton van Loon, the commander of coalition forces in southern Afghanistan. "It's going to take a lot work and a lot of effort to build up a robust network of surveillance and presence on this side of the border."

A consensus seems to be building among NATO partners for each country take over responsibility for the improvement of the border police in their individual provinces.

For example, Canada could take a lead role in Kandahar province, while the British handle volatile Helmand province, said Kampman in an interview with The Canadian Press.

If available, experts in border security and specialized trainers from each host country could be brought in and combined with military mentors, he said.

Recently, Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay called on NATO to provide more help controlling the Afghan border with Pakistan. In unusually blunt talk prior to a meeting of alliance foreign ministers in Brussels, he said insurgents, who cross from Pakistan into southern Afghanistan, "must be stopped."

NATO's efforts to secure the border will need to focus on the high traffic areas from the Pakistani regions of Quetta, Peshawar, and Miranshah, where the Taliban is strong, according to background briefings.

Small contingents of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are already conducting long-range patrols in the region - an ongoing operation Kampman hopes to augment with more troops if the fragile lull in militant activity around Kandahar holds into the spring.

"As we develop better security in the interior areas of our region, we'll be able to apply better effort and more resources to the border area," he said. "That is certainly one of aspirations in the coming few months."

With a dizzying array of technology at their fingertips, such as satellites and unmanned drones, some defence officials say the solution lies in high-tech surveillance, but that proposal is good only as long as foreign troops remain in the country.

"Anything that we do here has to be sustainable," said Kampman. "We have to be very careful about bringing in a lot of high-tech solutions that are going to require a lot of expensive, high-tech solutions."

Unmanned aerial vehicles may be useful in detecting suspicious movement in the desert hinterland and mountain creases that make up Afghanistan's 2,500-kilometre border with Pakistan, but the electronic advantage is neutralized when it comes to detecting suicide bombers and explosives hidden in civilian vehicles.

At the so-called Friendship Gate, in Spinboldak, about 100 km southeast of Kandahar, roughly 30,000 people pass through the checkpoint daily. Board guards admittedly are able to search only a handful of people.

Much to the alarm of the international community and NATO, Pakistan has proposed mining its side of the border and possibly fencing it in order to control the movement of people. But alliance intelligence officers say the Pakistanis are now leaning towards high-tech motion detectors rather than explosives.

In the gritty world of ground-level intelligence, a lot of hope is being pinned on a new information-sharing arrangement between NATO and the Pakistani military, where both sides post liason officers in headquarters on either side of the border.

Afghan Parliament Grants Immunity To War Criminals

KABUL, February 1, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- Afghanistan's parliament has granted immunity to all Afghans involved in the country's conflicts during the last quarter century despite calls by human rights groups for war crimes trials, RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan reports.

The immunity is part of a national stability plan that says that "all those political and belligerent sides who were involved one way or the other during the 2 1/2 decades of war will not be prosecuted legally and judicially."

Both critics and supporters of the move say it covers fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar -- who now heads his own militant group.

Mohammad Mohaqeq --a former mujahedin leader and one of the key legislators behind the amnesty -- told RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan today that it is an attempt to bring peace and reconciliation to Afghan society.

"This was approved [on January 31] with an absolute majority of votes," said Mohaqeq, who finished third among 18 names on the Afghan presidential ballot in 2004. "It mainly says that all of those who were involved in the 2 1/2 decades of war, should [work] together and join the national reconciliation."

But human rights groups say bringing war criminals to justice -- including some members of parliament and senior government officials -- is vital for peace.

The stability plan passed by legislators dismisses a Human Rights Watch report chronicling past abuses by senior public figures as "inaccurate" and "baseless" and the result of "malicious intentions."

Afghan independent Tolo Television quoted Kabul lawmaker Abbas Nuyan questioning the legislature's authority to extend such an amnesty. "You do not have the right," he said, adding that "the rights of hundreds of thousands of people have been violated in Afghanistan."

Afghan call for say in aid likely to go unheard

BERLIN, Jan 31, 2007 (AFP) - Afghan calls for a bigger role in spending billions of dollars of aid flowing into the war-scarred country look likely to fall on deaf ears as a reconstruction conference ends here on Wednesday.

Afghan Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta complained at the start of the two-day meeting of donors in the German capital that the Afghan government was being "bypassed" in the process of rebuilding the country after 25 years of conflict.

"Unfortunately, the Afghan government continues to be bypassed by donor countries. Trusting Afghan institutions will be an important step towards breaking this cycle. Terrorists will exploit this situation if the government is unable to provide services to its people."

The meeting is aimed at assessing progress made since a conference in London last year when the international community launched a five-year plan, or "compact", to coordinate financial and military support to Afghanistan.

Twelve months on, many regions are still ravaged by violence and the Western-backed President Hamid Karzai is unable to extend his authority into much of the country.

The international monitoring group Human Rights Watch said in a report released on Tuesday that little had been achieved in the past year in providing Afghans with security, food and health care.

It said more than 1,000 civilians were killed last year, mostly in attacks by extremist Taliban fighters. More than five years after a US-led coalition invaded the country and toppled the Taliban government, Afghanistan continues to receive significant international aid.

The United States said last week it planned to commit an additional 10.6 billion dollars over two years and keep more than 3,000 troops there for an additional four months. It has already spent around 14 billion dollars.

The EU has also confirmed it will contribute 600 million euros (777 million dollars) over four years, with special efforts being made to bolster the judiciary in order to fight corruption.

The US ambassador to Afghanistan, Ronald Neumann, said before the meeting that he understood the calls from the Afghan government to have a greater say in where aid money was spent.

"There is a clear need to run more money through the Afghan government," he told journalists, but he could give no promises that that would happen.

There was a problem with the way the money could be distributed because of a lack of skilled bureaucrats, Neumann said. Better coordination between the civilian and military operations -- one of the main themes of the conference -- was required, the ambassador said.

The pledges of aid come as the NATO-led forces in Afghanistan have warned that the Taliban is expected to mount a fresh wave of attacks when the weather warms up.

Richard Boucher, US assistant secretary of state for south and central Asian affairs, said however he was optimistic that 2007 would be a "turning point" for Afghanistan.

"I think we look at this year and say that we are better set than last year," Boucher said. The Afghan army and police was in better shape than last year, he insisted, but formidable problems remained in coordinating the military and civilian efforts.

Boucher said the importance of opium to the Afghan economy was declining, even though United Nations figures show the country's production of the drug jumped by nearly 50 percent last year to a record 6,100 tonnes.

"Opium accounted for one-third of the Afghan economy in 2005 and our indications are that its importance is diminishing," he told AFP.

"That is important to Afghanistan but what matters to the rest of the world is how much opium is coming out of Afghanistan and at the moment that is still huge. So we have a long way to go."

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the conference more must be done to encourage farmers to grow alternative crops.

"We are concerned that opium production increased drastically over the last 12 months and we cannot allow that to continue," he said. Afghanistan produces 92 percent of the world's opium, which is used to make heroin.

Afghanistan's local insurgency

International Herald Tribune, 02/01/2007 By Seth G. Jones

WASHINGTON: The rising violence and the near certainty of a Taliban spring offensive have triggered calls for an increase in U.S. military forces in Afghanistan. But a military strategy is not likely to succeed. Counterinsurgencies are almost always won by establishing a viable and legitimate government at the local level that can win popular support.

In Afghanistan, all politics is local. The country's history is littered with empires that failed to understand this reality, from Alexander the Great more than 2,000 ago to the British and Soviet empires more recently.

The Taliban and its allies certainly understand the importance of local politics. They have successfully re-emerged by co-opting or threatening local villagers, and promising better governance and security than the current Afghan government. On my most recent trip to southern Afghanistan in January, I saw that the message of the Taliban clearly resonated with a growing number of locals in southern and eastern parts of the country.

Afghans are frustrated by the lack of development over the past five years, and unhappy with widespread government corruption. This makes the Taliban's threat real and significant. The Taliban and its allies have a strong presence in local villages throughout such provinces as Kandahar and Helmand, and are preparing sustained operations.

It is telling that the Taliban's primary target is not U.S. or NATO forces, but local Afghans. This reflects the understanding that the local population represents the center of gravity, as Mao Zedong famously wrote.

The lesson for the United States and NATO is stark. They will win or lose Afghanistan in the rural villages and districts of the country, not in the capital city of Kabul. And if they are to win, they must begin by understanding the local nature of the insurgency.

The insurgency can be divided into two main tiers. The top tier is made up of the Taliban leadership structure and key commanders, including former Afghan leader Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Jalaluddin Haqqani, and several hundred other military and political commanders. These men are motivated by radical Islam, and see the insurgency as a fight with Western infidels, and the West's "puppet government" in Kabul.

The bottom tier includes thousands of local fighters and their support network. These are primarily young men from rural villages who are paid to set up roadside bombs, launch rockets and mortars at NATO and Afghan forces, or pick up a gun for a few days. Most are not ideologically committed to jihad. Rather, they are motivated because they are unemployed, disenchanted with the lack of change since 2001, or angry because a local villager was killed or wounded by Afghan, U.S. or NATO forces.

A successful counterinsurgency strategy must separate these two tiers.

Dealing with the top tier requires a Machiavellian approach. Members of this group cannot be converted. They must be captured or killed because of their ideological commitment to jihad. Doing this entails a difficult political and diplomatic feat: convincing the government of Pakistan to undermine the Taliban sanctuary on its soil.

Washington has been unwilling to confront Pakistan over the fact that most of the top-tier Taliban leaders live in Pakistan. There is virtual unanimity among UN and NATO officials that Omar is based Quetta, Pakistan. Omar sits atop a shura, or leadership council, that holds strategic command of the Taliban.

The bottom tier is equally critical. Separating the bottom from the top tier will require fighting for the hearts and souls of local villagers in the south and east by addressing their key concerns.

A series of public opinion polls conducted by the Asia Foundation, the BBC and ABC News show that unemployment is a significant concern for most Afghans. As a result, many of the bottom-tier fighters can be co-opted by giving them jobs. This has already begun to happen in such provinces as Kandahar, where Canadian forces are trying to employ local fighters in road construction projects and Afghanistan's new auxiliary police force.

Reconstruction and development need to reach rural areas threatened by the Taliban to capture the allegiance of the bottom tier. This has not happened. Despite NATO and Afghan government efforts to establish development zones in the south and east, I was shocked to find how little has actually occurred because of security concerns. The irony is that areas most at risk to the Taliban receive no development assistance. In addition, U.S. and NATO forces need to minimize the use of lethal force. Killing one innocent Afghan civilian can turn a village against the Afghan government and coalition.

Separating the insurgency's two tiers is possible. But it requires an understanding of the primacy of local politics. And it means convincing villagers in the south and east that the local and national governments have more to offer than the Taliban. The key question is whether the United States and NATO, unlike past great powers, will understand this before it is too late.

Seth G. Jones is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, a research organization.

The Afghanistan Surge

Iraq is not the only theater where the Bush administration is belatedly committing more troops and aid. Thursday, February 1, 2007 Washington Post editorial

WHILE THE country debates the Bush administration's "surge" of American troops into Baghdad, a similar American buildup has begun in Afghanistan. As in Iraq, it comes in response to rapidly escalating violence, and in Afghanistan, too, one question is whether the reinforcements are too little or too late.

By extending the deployment of a brigade of the 10th Mountain Division even as the 82nd Airborne begins to arrive, the Pentagon will bring the U.S. troop level to 24,000. That's 50 percent more than at this time last year and about six times the number of American soldiers who were in Afghanistan at the time of the battle for Tora Bora, in early 2002. The administration, led by Vice President Cheney and then-Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, stoutly resisted calls for expanding either U.S. or allied forces then. Let the record show: They were terribly wrong. Successful wars begin with a large troop deployment that tapers off as objectives are accomplished and security is restored. In Afghanistan U.S. troop levels started at rock bottom and have steadily risen over the past five years, even as security has worsened.

By most measures, there are still far fewer Afghan and foreign troops than are needed to secure the country. With the increase, the total number of U.S., NATO and other allied troops will be around 45,000, while there are about 40,000 soldiers in the new Afghan army. By contrast there are 146,000 coalition troops in Iraq in advance of the surge, and 134,000 Iraqi army troops. Yet Afghanistan is 50 percent larger than Iraq and has a larger population. What's more, many NATO troops in Afghanistan are constrained by their governments from fighting or even deploying in the areas where the Taliban insurgency is based. Only 80 percent of the troops requested by NATO commanders have been dispatched, and there are shortages of vital equipment such as helicopters.

The relative good news is that the administration is making a significant effort to correct a situation that, though deteriorating, remains far better than that in Iraq. In addition to the extra forces, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced last week that the White House would seek $10.6 billion in new funding for Afghanistan in the upcoming supplemental budget -- a huge addition to the $14 billion in aid that has been spent since 2001. Most of the new money would go toward a big expansion of the Afghan army and police, which would gain 150,000 new personnel, but $2 billion would be used for aid projects in a country where millions of people have yet to see any benefit from the government that replaced the Taliban.

The effort deserves support from Congress. But it's likely to fall short unless other NATO countries are willing to similarly increase their commitments. Though Britain, Canada and the Netherlands carried the burden of the war in southern Afghanistan last year, Germany, France, Italy and Spain are among the countries that have kept their soldiers away from the war zone and tied them down with restrictions. The European Union has pledged just $780 million in aid for Afghanistan over the next four years. Ms. Rice now leads a U.S. campaign to round up more allied commitments over the next several weeks. She can only hope the belated but essential American escalation will give her some leverage.

200 more Afghan pilgrims held

By our correspondent – The News Int. - karachi: Another 200 Afghan Pilgrims, including 44 women, traveling on fake Pakistani documents, were sent to passport circle for investigations on Wednesday. Coming from two Flights PK-3352 and PK-3536, these Afghan Hajjis were detained by FIA officials late on Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning and later sent for further investigation. The total number of jailed Hajjis has now reached 593, including 95 women. According to FIA officials, the ministry of religious affairs has not yet given any written directive to start any action against theses Hajjis and they are awaiting orders. They informed that proper investigation into the scam to crack down the network and to find out the involvement of NADRA and the officials of Hajj directorate of the ministry of religious affairs will start after the arrival of last batch expected on February 2nd.

Govt links suicide blasts to Taliban – The News Int.

ISLAMABAD: Investigators said on Wednesday they had found leads linking a string of suicide bombings to Taliban militants, as the death toll from a wave of violence rose to 23.

They said six men arrested in a town at the weekend told interrogators about a web of militants, connected to a senior Taliban commander, who were plotting suicide and car bomb attacks across the country.

The attacks have highlighted the country’s difficulties as it battles insurgents in the tribal areas, who are blamed for launching attacks on Nato forces across the border in Afghanistan. “During the investigations we have got good clues suggesting the bombings were by militants based in the Waziristan tribal region,” a senior security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

The toll from one of the bombings, in Peshawar on Saturday, rose after one of the 30 people injured in the blast died in hospital on Wednesday, police said. Security sources said the six men, who were arrested in raids in Dera Ismail Khan on Sunday, had given details about a network of insurgents in Waziristan planning bombings.

“They told interrogators that Baitullah (Mahsud) was unhappy with (the) Army's ... action against the Taliban and al-Qaeda and he planned revenge attacks,” an official familiar with the interrogation told AFP. Interior Ministry spokesman Brig Javed Cheema said investigations into the three suicide bombings were "going well, but it will be difficult to share any information at this stage”.

Linking US aid to terror war effort Pakistan expects balanced bill: FO

Spokesperson says no transit trade facility to India sans Kashmir solution
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan said on Wednesday it expects the US administration to intervene to make final legislation on Pakistan more balanced.

“We expect the US administration to intervene and we expect that the language of the final legislation would be more balanced, as we do not see the language of a bill adopted by the House of Representatives as balanced,” Foreign Office spokesperson Tasnim Aslam told a weekly press briefing here. She said the legislation has been adopted by the US House of Representatives and the Senate has yet to come out with its own version and then the two versions would be discussed in the Council of State.

Asked as if Pakistan has got any assurance from the US government, Aslam referred to the recent visit of a senior US official, John A Gastright, to Pakistan and his interaction with the press where he had clearly stated that the US administration would be working with the Congress to make the language of the legislation more balanced.

Asked about the transit facilities for India, the spokesperson said India can trade with Afghanistan through the Karachi port. India is welcome to avail this facility like other countries, she added. However, with regard to transit through the land route, she stated that Pakistan would have to prepare its public opinion before taking such a step.

MacKay says Afghanistan Compact balances mission

Updated Wed. Jan. 31 2007 - CTV.ca News Staff

Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay has said Canada's military presence in Afghanistan is helping reconstruction efforts in the country, as outlined in the Afghanistan Compact.

Wednesday marks the first year anniversary of the agreement, finalized on Jan. 31, 2006 between the international community and the Afghan government.

"Many have been calling for a balancing of the mission," MacKay told Mike Duffy Live. "And it's all there, it's all contained in that document that sets out benchmarks in various areas of governance, of development, of reconstruction and of stability."

The Afghanistan Compact describes a five-year renewal plan that ends in 2011, beyond Canada's own mission timeline, which ends in February 2009.

"There are two separate but simultaneous tracks that we're on: security and development," said MacKay.

He added that Afghan President Hamid Karzai "and the Afghan government are very thankful and appreciative of what we're doing, and are talking often about how we're able to show in each of those areas (of the Afghanistan Compact) how we're making progress."

The minister's comments came one day after a report by Human Rights Watch that claimed more than 1,000 civilians were killed in Afghanistan in 2006.

The group said most of those deaths resulted from attacks by insurgents in the southern area of the country, where Canadian troops have focused their military efforts to promote stability.

A top Canadian officer said insurgents and suicide bombers continue to pour into Afghanistan from neighbouring Pakistan, and more guards are needed to toughen security at the border.

"This is a big border area and a lot of people don't fully appreciate how easy it is to cross," Col. Mike Kampman told The Canadian Press.

"It's going to take a lot work and a lot of effort to build up a robust network of surveillance and presence on this side of the border."

Kampman is chief of staff to Brig.-Gen. Ton van Loon, the commander of coalition forces in southern Afghanistan.

Some NATO officials have suggested individual countries take responsibility for boosting border security in specific Afghan provinces, meaning Canada would focus on the area between Kandahar and Pakistan.

Members of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are already patrolling border regions, although Kampman said he would like to see more troops assisting in the effort.

"As we develop better security in the interior areas of our region, we'll be able to apply better effort and more resources to the border area," he told CP.

"That is certainly one of aspirations in the coming few months."

Last year, Pakistan suggested mining the border, along with a possible fence, to better regulate those travelling between the countries. But the proposal was met with criticism from coalition forces.

With files from The Canadian Press

Militants torch school in Afghanistan

Press Trust of India - Kabul, January 31, 2007

Insurgents burned down a primary school in southeastern Afghanistan, police said on Wednesday, in the second such attack this year targeting the country's struggling education system.

The primary school was set ablaze overnight in the Kharwar district of Logar province, the Afghan interior ministry, which controls the police, said in a statement.

"The ministry condemns this unforgivable action of foreign mercenaries," it said, without referring to any particular country or group.

Similar attacks in the past have always been blamed on the remnants of the Taliban regime. The Afghan government says the militants are supported by circles in neighbouring Pakistan.

The fundamentalist Taliban have waged a bloody insurgency since they were toppled from power by a US-led offensive in late 2001. The violence claimed over 4,000 lives in 2006, the worst year since the invasion.

Police launched an investigation "to bring to justice the culprits". In a similar incident on January 1, a newly built school for refugee children was torched in eastern Nangarhar province.

There was a spate of similar attacks last year on schools and teachers. Education Minister Hanif Atmar said last week that the Taliban had burned down 183 schools and killed 61 teachers and students in the past one and a half years.prepare the public opinion.

About the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Aslam said the three countries have reached a broad understanding on the pricing. This has now been referred to the three governments and they are expected to confirm the agreement. “Pakistan is determined to follow the policies that are in its interest,” she added.

Replying to a question, Aslam said President Pervez Musharraf is discussing with Muslim leaders some ideas about the Middle East issue but these cannot be made public at this stage. “We need to develop a level of support and we are still at the stage of exploring these ideas,” she said. She said the president is undertaking visits for discussions on the issue at the request of several Muslim countries to play a role. She said the president is also discussing the Iraq situation with these leaders.

The spokesperson said the recognition of Israel and the establishment of diplomatic relations depends on the progress towards the establishment of a viable independent Palestinian state. “Before that there is no such consideration either in Pakistan or collectively in the Muslim countries,” she added.

Dr Sharifa Sharif new presidential advisor

KABUL, Jan 30 (Pajhwok Afghan News): Dr Sharifa Sharif has been appointed advisor to President Hamid Karzai on international affairs. Speaking to Pajhwok Afghan News, she said her responsibilities included keeping in view relations with the neighbouring countries.

She said Pakistan should stop the plans regarding the fencing of the Durand Line and should take other steps to stop the cross-border movement of terrorists. Dr Sharifa Sharif had got her degree in Literature from the Kabul University. She had completed her higher education in the United States of America.

More reconstruction projects for Kandahar, Uruzgan

KABUL, Jan 30 (Pajhwok Afghan News): Minister for Rural Rehabilitation and Development Mohammed Ehsan Zia signed contract for 76 new projects during his second trip to the southern province of Kandahar.

A press release issued here on Tuesday, said 71 of those projects were for three districts of Spin Boldak, Khakrez and Panjwayee. The projects would be completed at the cost of 724,990 US dollar.

The release said the rest of five projects, including construction of schools, would be completed in the neighbouring province of Uruzgan at the cost of 1,456,782 US dollars. The projects in Uruzgan would benefit 27,300 families, said the release.

It is the second visit by the minister to the southern zone during the previous three weeks. Of the 71 reconstruction projects in Kandahar, the release said, 43 would be completed in Khakrez, 19 in Panjwayee and nine in the border town of Spin Boldak.

The projects included de-silting of canals, digging of deep wells to provide clean drinking water to residents and construction of water reservoirs. The country's southern provinces are the most backward areas in term of developmental projects and lacking basic facilities like clean drinking water, schooling, health and electricity facilities.

Rebuilding and reconciliation

By Syed Saleem Shahzad - Asia Times Online / January 30, 2007

KABUL - The Bush administration's decision to ask Congress to approve US$10.6 billion in aid for Afghanistan over the next two years, along with projects launched by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office in the Pashtun heartlands of southwestern Afghanistan, is part of a new initiative to reactivate old tribal systems to combat warlordism and the Talibanization of society.

Even with all these resources, though, it will be no easy task to return Afghan society to the times when Kabul ruled Afghanistan through an emir of tribes (chief of all tribes).

Afghanistan changed dramatically with the emergence of socialism and Islamists, both of which eroded traditional tribal systems. Warlordism further reduced their efficacy, as did the emergence of the Taliban.

The Taliban's rise not only changed tribal dynamics in Afghanistan, it also caused problems in the neighboring Pakistani Pashtun tribal areas, notably South Waziristan and North Waziristan. Here, the Pakistani army tried to hunt down Taliban and al-Qaeda elements by exploiting tribal structures through Islamabad's appointed political agent.

However, the tribal system in Pakistan, which is far stronger than Afghanistan's, resisted efforts to isolate the Taliban, whose ideology the youth found more appealing than Islamabad's. More than 117 tribal elders, besides dozens of mullahs (clerics) who sided with the government, were "eliminated" and many others either fled to Pakistani cities or agreed to live under Taliban domination in the two Waziristans.

With the Taliban planning a mass uprising for the spring, it might be too late to bring the tribals on the side of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led International Security Assistance Force or the US.

Many pro-Kabul officials Asia Times Online spoke to expressed confidence that with extra money for reconstruction flowing through tribal channels, it will be possible to confront the Taliban's threat. A new government has taken up residence in Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, where the Taliban-led insurgency has its strategic heart.

Asadullah Wafa, a 66-year-old Kandahari royalist, replaced Engineer Daud, a qualified man but out of tune with the tribals. Wafa is Western-educated, but he is steeped in tribal wisdom gained in previous governorships in Paktia and Kunar provinces. Here, he succeeded in striking ceasefire deals with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan, which had been fighting on the side of the Taliban.

Governor's House is barely a 10-minute drive from the British task force base in Lashkar Gah, but it is on high security alert. Although various research polls claim that 80% of the people of Lashkar Gah support the Hamid Karzai-led government in Kabul, Governor's House has seen several suicide attacks, the most recent being this month.

"Sir, you will be seated in the back and we will lock the doors. If our car comes under attack, you will not unlock the doors. Under no circumstances will you leave the car, and don't panic." This was my briefing from a specially trained security man, dressed in civilian clothes, before I set out from the British base to Governor's House in a high-powered, four-wheel-drive, bullet-proof vehicle.

"We are here to do the panicking for you. If you suffer injuries during an attack, don't worry, we have the best treatment facilities. There are bottles of water on the seat," the official concluded. He also checked that I was not diabetic or suffering from high blood pressure.

Joining me on the back seat of the car was an adviser to the governor, Thomas Tugendhat, who had made the arrangements for me to meet the governor. As we drew up to his offices, British security officials from an accompanying vehicle took up positions around us, and only then were our doors opened.

I had already been informed that I would not be able to speak to people outside the offices, as it was too dangerous, but I could talk to those inside. The governor's secretariat is manned by local Helmand people, but all security officials are non-Pashtuns of Dari-speaking stock. As we entered, I noticed damage to the building caused by the suicide attack, which claimed only the life of the explosive-laden attacker.

We were 30 minutes early for our appointment with the governor, so I was left waiting with my escort, Major Andrew Bird, an Australian. Bird is a smoker, like me, but he could not smoke in the room and he could not go out and leave me alone.

"Saleem, do you want to smoke?" Bird asked, saying we could go out together. "Journalist wants to smoke. Secure the area," ordered a British security man in the room who had heard our conversation.

As I was about to walk into the courtyard, Andrew grabbed my arm and pulled me back. "Please, stay behind me. Remember, buddy, if you get shot I am demoted to a lieutenant."

As we smoked we exchanged notes on the situation in southwestern Afghanistan, and it was quite apparent how nervous the British security guards were.

Finally, Tugendhat came to take me to see the governor. Outside his office, people from the Sangeen, Nawzad and Musa Qala districts of the province were sitting, members of newly formed tribal councils. They were talking about prolonging ceasefire deals with the Taliban.

"We don't have any problems with the Taliban. The Taliban are the sons of the soil. They are Afghans. You could see I had people here from Nawzad and Sangeen; they are all pro-Taliban. We talk to each other and are sincere in finding solutions for the betterment of Afghanistan," Governor Wafa said.

"The problem is the ISI's [Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence]Taliban. Those who get money from the ISI and fight with their own people. I don't consider them Afghans," Wafa said.

"I term the present insurgency unleashed on the people of Afghanistan a war imposed by Pakistan. But the history of Afghanistan is witness that foreign invaders have never been successful in Afghanistan and are always defeated. So, too, will Pakistan," Wafa said.

Wafa is optimistic that through his tribal councils he will make a difference and will persuade the masses to cooperate in opening up schools and eliminating poppy fields. He said a new phase of reconstruction in the province through the Afghan government will change the province's dynamics.

Wafa was somewhat unnerved when I mentioned that suicide attacks in the province had not stopped, and I referred to the one on his offices just days earlier. "I cannot comment on that," said.

The governor and his tribal councils are now versed in the latest strategy of the foreign coalition to make an enduring effort by engaging Afghans in so many reconstruction projects that their hearts and minds will be won over. Nevertheless, the biggest problem is how actually to engage the people in the projects.

Barry Kavanagh is a development adviser for the British Department for International Development, which assists provincial reconstruction teams in Helmand.

"Yes, there is a general complaint here in southwestern Afghanistan that northern Afghanistan has received a lot in comparison to the south in terms of reconstruction projects. But the fact is that the north is secure and the south is not.

"Even Afghan officials are scared for their lives working in this region. No NGO [non-governmental organization] is ready to visit Helmand province, which is the reason coalition countries do not launch projects in southwestern Afghanistan," said Kavanagh.

"However, now we have chalked out a strategy under which we ask Afghans to set targets and priorities. We will only arrange the money, like we recently earmarked a development budget of 20 million pounds sterling [US$39 million] for Helmand province. This will be given to the federal Ministry of Finance, which will then pass it on to the Ministry of Rural Affairs. It will then come to the provincial government, which will consult with the tribal councils and then award the contracts to Afghan contractors. They will only employ Afghan youths to execute the project.

"Since the money belongs to British taxpayers, we will make sure through supervision that the money is used for the projects and does not go into the [wrong] pockets," Kavanagh maintained.

According to Kavanagh, such projects have only been in operation for a month, so it will take some time for them to have an "enduring effect".

"Most of our focus is on capacity-building and engaging Afghans, and of course this is not an easy task. You cannot build capacity in days in a region which has been ruined in the last 30 years and all the brains have been drained abroad. It will take at least 20 years to build real capacity," Kavanagh said.

Squadron Leader Elizabeth Hyde is the officer in charge of civil military cooperation, an interface in southwestern Afghanistan. Hyde is enthusiastic because in the past few months the security situation has improved after the implementation of ceasefire agreements between occupation forces and the Taliban.

"We have selected 50 girls for the midwifery program. Generally, people do not allow their girls to be trained for such programs in which they are required to go out from their homes, but we finally managed to at least start our program with 50 girls," said Hyde. The program has also been pursuing teachers who have been scared off by the Taliban to return to their schools.

The biggest problem is the gulf between the foreign aid missions and the local people. The tribal councils make things happen, but in the past they are known to have pocketed much money. NGOs would also normally help, but there aren't any in Helmand province because of the security situation.

The initiative in Helmand is just months old. To re-establish tribal networks effectively as a bottom-up means to rebuild the province - both socially and physically - could take years.

This might be too long. The Taliban are certainly using the breathing space they have negotiated to beef up their resources in preparation for their spring offensive. The tribes will be caught in a tug-of-war between joining the Taliban's mass revolt and the lure of massive infrastructure projects.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief.

Pashtun Hold Key to Afghan-Pakistani Border Issues

Jason Motlagh | 30 Jan 2007 - World Politics Watch Exclusive

Lawless Afghan-Pakistani borderlands have emerged as a flash point between officials on both sides over who is responsible for bringing order to a known Taliban safe haven in the face of a gathering insurgency. The blame game ignores the reality that the "Pashtun belt" at ground level belongs to neither country, with a history of rejecting would-be occupiers.

The same rugged tribal areas that Osama bin Laden and other top al-Qaida operatives retreated to following the U.S.-led 2001 invasion to topple the Taliban have become a rear base for Taliban militants launching cross-border attacks against NATO-led security forces in Afghanistan with unprecedented frequency and boldness. And the failure to address the roots of alienation that make these areas sympathetic to Islamist militancy means destabilizing forces will always have a home to retreat to and regenerate.

Pakistan, a key ally in the Bush administration's war on terror, faces mounting pressure to contain the Taliban and al-Qaida militants operating within its borders. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz conceded last week that Taliban sympathizers are active in tribal areas along the border, but charged the crux of the problem lay with the Afghans, who are not doing enough to secure their own territory. Western intelligence agencies contend elements within Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence continue to actively support the Taliban.

Critics cite a controversial truce signed last September by Islamabad with pro-Taliban tribal leaders in North Waziristan as further evidence of a two-faced policy that gives militants free reign. Pakistani officials maintain the truce was necessary to end five years of low-intensity fighting in the area that had claimed over 350 Pakistan troops and hundreds of civilians. They assert the deployment of an additional 80,000 troops at Washington's behest to the border region had backfired, fueling popular resentment of the government.

In exchange for a Pakistani troop pullback, tribal elders were said to have sworn to prevent Taliban from entering Afghanistan. But the region has been anything but quiet. Fighting usually grinds to a halt during the harsh winter months, yet cross-border attacks have tripled, according to U.S. intelligence figures. There were some 40 total attacks in Afghanistan's eastern Khost and Paktika provinces in the two months before the agreement, versus 140 in the two months after. A sign of worse to come came just two days after the deal was inked, when two anti-Taliban tribal leaders were assassinated.

A December report by the International Crisis Group said Pakistan's army had "virtually retreated to the barracks" in North Waziristan, giving pro-Taliban groups "a free-hand to recruit, train and arm" in order to "launch increasingly severe cross-border attacks on Afghan and international military personnel." Crisis Group said the agreement has allowed Islamist militants to "establish a virtual mini-Taliban style state," while fighting continues on three fronts along the border.

Adding to the confusion are heavy-handed Pakistani military operations against pro-Taliban groups. A late October gunship strike on a tribal religious school in the Bajaur tribal area killed 80 militants, prompting a suicide bombing reprisal that claimed 42 army recruits. Earlier this month, another Pakistani gunship attacked insurgent convoys on the Pakistan side of the border in concert with Afghan-based NATO forces, a maneuver Pakistan claimed killed at least 150 militants -- more proof of cross-border infiltrations from Pakistan. On Jan. 23, a suicide bomb attack targeting a military convoy killed four more Pakistan troops and stoked fears of renewed hostilities on the Pakistan side of the border.

The latest Pakistani effort to fence and mine the border is not faring any better. The first of a number of checkpoints using computerized fingerprint checking and ID cards were recently implemented at the main border crossing into Kandahar province. Thousands of Pashtuns on both sides have protested the move, which analysts have dismissed as a misguided attempt to silence critics.

Pakistan now finds itself between the proverbial rock and a hard place: U.S. demands to crack down on areas where Bin Laden still may be hiding and where attacks on Western interests are known to have been orchestrated are unrelenting, while internal opposition mounts against an already frayed Musharraf government for playing the puppet to a foreign power. The same goes for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, often dismissed as the mayor of Kabul.

Both sides refuse to acknowledge what invading British and Soviet armies learned the hard way: The modern-day Afghan-Pakistani border, known as the Durand Line, has really never been enforceable among the tribes that predominate in the badlands straddling its 1,500-mile length.

The Durand Line runs from Pakistan's North West Frontier Province down to the deserts of Baluchistan. In Afghanistan, it abuts Kunar, Kandahar and Helmand provinces -- all hotbeds of the Taliban insurgency. Centuries-old Pashtun tribal code, Pastunwali, in which honor and hospitality are paramount, is de facto law throughout the region and is said to have saved Bin Laden as U.S. forces bombed his Tora Bora hideout in December 2001. Employed to settle everything from petty disputes to blood feuds, it obligates Pashtuns to provide sanctuary to anyone who asks for it.

But today an estimated 43 million Pashtuns -- 15 million on the Afghan side, 28 million in Pakistan -- united in ethnicity, language, culture and history, remain divided by a historical technicality.

The British created the Durand Line in 1893 to demarcate the outer border of then-British India from Afghanistan, which later served as a buffer state between imperial Russia during the Great Game over Central Asia. In 1947, the newly formed country of Pakistan inherited the border from British India, but Afghanstan has to this day refused to recognize it as an official international border. The "Pashtunistan question" still persists.

Over the last 150 years, foreign military enterprises in the region have hardened Pashtun contempt toward outsiders. The British waged a number of major military campaigns against Pashtun tribesman, losing all but one of 16,000 soldiers in 1842 while trying to retreat from Kabul to the Khyber Pass. Even after they managed to occupy the country, there were no illusions about having full control. History repeated itself during the 1979-89 Afghan war, when CIA-backed mujaheddin heavily comprised of Pashtun guerillas rejected the invading Soviets. And still, U.S. support did not prevent Mullah Omar's anti-West Taliban from rising in the aftermath to become a midwife to al-Qaida.

More than 4,000 people died from violence amid the Taliban insurgency last year, with heavier fighting expected in 2007 on multiple fronts. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which include North and South Waziristan provinces, are staging grounds for veteran mujaheddin leader Jalaladdin Haqqani, and Omar himself is said to operate a Taliban command center in the city of Quetta, Baluchistan province, none of which could continue without the support of Pashtun leaders.

Unless the tribal areas are integrated into the sphere of governance, it appears the Taliban and affiliated militants will enjoy a permanent foothold to threaten the security of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Western interests further afield. Some Afghan officials have argued a mutually-binding border management agreement that upholds the rule of law on both sides is needed; otherwise the international community cannot assign responsibility for failing to control insurgent forces. This demands that historical grievances in the Pashtun belt first be addressed.

A holistic border agreement, based on the existing Durand Line but signed by Afghanistan, Pakistan and non-state actors, could lay the groundwork for a reconciliation process that aims to enhance the civil and political rights of the tribes. Pashtuns rely on jirgas, or informal courts made up of tribal elders, to solve almost all tribal differences. Because the system is built on mutual consent rooted in pashtunwali, verdicts tend to be more respected among parties involved. A broad peace deal that spans both sides of the border might then be struck using the jirga format to assemble ranking tribal elders.

Aggressive maneuvers by the Pakistani military and NATO-led security forces, however, may sour Pashtun willingness to cooperate, as they have shown a tendency to rally around militant Islam when confronted with aggressive military power. U.S. plans for a more stringent counterinsurgency plan to stem cross-border infiltration suggest an earnest bilateral dialogue is not around the corner.

An appeal to ethnic pride may be still be a start. Conservative Islamist lawmakers in Pakistan have proposed changing the name of the North West Frontier Province to "Pashtunistan," as part of larger set of demands to assimilate restive tribal territories. Pashtun leaders say they might be willing to recognize the Durand Line as an international border for such a designation -- only as an open border -- and would work with the Afghan government to do the same.

Jason Motlagh is a deputy editor for UPI. He has reported from Afghanistan for the news agency and for other U.S. and European dailies.

[Disclaimer: The content of this news bulletin does not necessarily reflect the view or policy of the Afghan Government, unless specifically stated as such. The collection of articles and commentaries from Afghan and international news sources is provided for informational purposes, and accuracy of the news is the responsibility of the original source.]