In this bulletin:

• Car bomber kills NATO soldier, 8 others
• Afghanistan clashes leave up to 20 dead
• Taliban recruit hundreds of suicide bombers
• Turkish, Afghan foreign ministers discuss need to boost ties
• Tajikistan decides to hand over 13 Afghan prisoners
• France, Germany alarmed at worsening Afghan situation
• Eikenberry: Afghan mission focus changes
• Pakistan foils coup plot
• "Americans' presence foments insecurity, corruption" - Iranian minister
• Canada Troops Battle 10 - Ft Afghan Marijuana Plants
• New Afghan armed group declares jihad in east
• Afghan Senate leader announces boycott until corrupt officials sacked
• Fellow officers back sacked Afghan airport police chief
• Taleban said to free Pakistani engineers in Afghan south in return for ransom
• Afghan police arrest alleged Pakistani spy in capital
• Four Taleban arrested in eastern Afghanistan
• Pakistan arrests 17 suspected Taleban in southwest city
• Afghan official survives attempt on life
• Afghan chief prosecutor issues arrest warrant for Herat mayor
• Oil, gas reserves in Afghanistan 10 times more than predicted: survey
• Private equity fund CDC enters strife-torn Afghanistan
• How to turn the tide in Afghanistan
• Analysis: An al-Qaida sanctuary?
• Towards a peaceful Afghanistan
• Editorial: Pacification of the tribals
• ‘Pakistan not behind blasts’

Car bomber kills NATO soldier, 8 others

Kandahar (AP) – A suicide car bomber targeted a NATO convoy Friday in southern Afghanistan, killing a NATO soldier and eight civilians, alliance and police officials said.

The attack in Kandahar also left eight civilians and one NATO soldier wounded, the officials said.

Pieces of the bomber's vehicle were scattered over the blast site and smoke rose from the scene as firefighters battled the flames. The fronts of 12 shops were damaged.

The eight wounded civilians included two children, said Masood Khan, a doctor at a hospital where they were being treated.

Two soldiers who were initially wounded in the blast were taken to a military medical facility, where one of them died, a statement from the NATO-led force said. Their nationalities were not released.

While NATO has said clashes with insurgents have decreased in the last month in southern Afghanistan, the militants are increasingly resorting to roadside and suicide attacks in their bid to weaken the government and hit foreign troops.

The blast comes a day after NATO-led forces and Afghan troops clashed with suspected Taliban militants also in the south, leaving as many as 20 suspected insurgents dead, Chalk said.

Some 60 insurgents attacked a joint NATO and Afghan patrol in the Kandahar province's Panjwayi district, he said.

The troops returned fire and called in airstrikes on insurgent positions that left up to 20 militants dead and two suspected Taliban detained, Chalk said. There were no casualties among NATO or Afghan troops, he said.

It was impossible to independently verify the death toll at the remote battle site. In the east, a suicide bomber on foot rushed at a vehicle carrying Afghan troops in Khost province and set off a blast that killed himself, and wounded two of the troops and 14 civilians, said Mohammad Ayub, a provincial police chief.

Afghanistan is going through its worst period of violence since 2001, particularly in the south and east.

Afghanistan clashes leave up to 20 dead

Kabul (AP 10.12.06) - NATO-led forces and Afghan troops clashed with suspected Taliban militants Thursday in southern Afghanistan, leaving as many as 20 suspected insurgents dead.

A suicide bomber struck a vehicle carrying Afghan soldiers in the east, wounding 16 people.

Some 60 insurgents attacked a joint NATO and Afghan patrol in the Panjwayi district of Kandahar province, said Squadron Leader Jason Chalk, a spokesman for the NATO-led troops.

The troops returned fire and called in airstrikes on insurgent positions that left up to 20 insurgents killed and two suspected Taliban detained, Chalk said. There were no casualties among NATO or Afghan troops, he said.

It was impossible to independently verify the death toll at the remote battle site. The clash came a day after NATO said that clashes with insurgents in the area have decreased.

The suicide bomber rushed on foot to the vehicle carrying Afghan troops in Khost province, triggering a blast that killed himself and wounded two of the troops and 14 civilians, said Mohammad Ayub, a provincial police chief.

Separately, a car bomb targeting a U.S. patrol in Tani district of Khost province wounded three civilians, Ayub said. No U.S. troops were hurt, he said.

In the southern city of Kandahar, two people riding a motorbike lobbed two hand-grenades at the Indian Consulate, said Abdul Shakoor Khan, a police official. No one was wounded, he said.

Afghanistan is going through its worst violence since 2001, particularly in the south and east, where insurgents have been battling Afghan and foreign troops.

While NATO said the clashes with insurgents have decreased in the last month, the militants are increasingly resorting to the use of roadside and suicide attacks in their campaign to weaken the government.

On Wednesday, suspected Taliban militants ambushed a joint Afghan-NATO patrol in southern Uruzgan province, killing one Afghan soldier and wounding three others, said Gen. Mohammad Qasam Khan, the province's police chief.

A roadside bomb exploded near a vehicle carrying Afghan soldiers, then militants opened fire on the patrol. One militant was killed in the ensuing clash, Khan said.

But a NATO statement said 25 suspected insurgents and one resident were killed in the battle. Seven local civilians were also wounded, the statement said. No NATO troops were wounded.

There was no immediate explanation for the difference in the reported number of causalities. Meanwhile, a U.S. soldier died Wednesday after falling from a helicopter during a landing approach in southern Afghanistan, NATO said.

The soldier, who name was not released, was taken to a military hospital after falling from the UH-60 aircraft in Helmand province, the alliance said. He died of his injuries in the Kandahar military hospital.

Associated Press Writers Fisnik Abrashi in Kabul and Noor Khan in Kandahar contributed to this report.

Taliban recruit hundreds of suicide bombers

Source: Xinhua 13 Oct 06 - A Taliban's regional commander has claimed a movement to recruit hundreds of bombers to attack Afghan and U.S. dominated foreign forces, a private news agency reported Thursday.

"Taliban fighters have recruited hundreds of suicide bombers," Hindokosh News Agency (HNA) quoted Mullah Nazir Ahmad Humza as saying.

He also added that he himself was ready to sacrifice, "his life in war against the United States and its Christian allies."

Meantime, the news agency quoted a Taliban spokesman Dr. Hanif as saying the militants had killed 20 U.S. soldiers in the Pech valley of Manogai district in eastern Kunar province Wednesday.

On the other hand, the agency added that the U.S. military confirmed three of its soldiers were wounded in Kunar on Wednesday.

Turkish, Afghan foreign ministers discuss need to boost ties

Text of report in English by Turkish news agency Anatolia - Ankara: 12 October: Turkish Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Gul met Afghan Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta in Foreign Ministry residence in Ankara on Thursday [12 October].

After the meeting, Gul told reporters that there were deep-rooted relations between Turkey and Afghanistan. Stating that Afghanistan had experienced some problems during the last 20-25 years, Gul underlined: "We hope that these problems will end soon."

Recalling that Turkey first undertook the command of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan and it also worked in ISAF in the following period, Gul said that Turkish soldiers felt at home when serving in Afghanistan.

Gul noted: "We should also boost economic cooperation between the two countries." He added that a new project would take start near Kabul in regard to the areas of education, health and water sources.

On the other hand, Spanta noted that there were sound ties between the two countries. Stating that Turkey made important contributions to several areas in Afghanistan, Spanta indicated that Turkey assumed a constructive role in his country.

Spanta stated that they passed through difficult days due to drug smuggling and terrorist activities in the south of Afghanistan, noting that they were working to end these problems in cooperation with international community.

Tajikistan decides to hand over 13 Afghan prisoners

Excerpt from report by Tajik Avesta website on 11 October - Dushanbe, 11 October: The Tajik government has decided to hand over 13 Afghan prisoners, who are serving varying terms of punishment in Tajikistan's prisons for crimes committed in the country, to Afghanistan.

In accordance with an agreement reached between the two countries, convicts with short prison terms will be released, and those with longer terms will serve the remaining term of punishment in their home country.

Most of the prisoners are said to be inhabitants of the [northern] Afghan province of Takhar.

Meanwhile, as was earlier reported, the Cabinet of Ministers of Afghanistan has embarked on studying a project to implement an agreement on handing over convicts, signed in Dushanbe in late July this year, the Afghan ambassador to Tajikistan, Sayed Mohammad Khairkhwa, has told Avesta.

The agreement on handing over convicts between the two countries was signed during a visit to Dushanbe by Afghan President Hamed Karzai.

France, Germany alarmed at worsening Afghan situation

Excerpt from report by French news agency AFP

Paris, 12 October: France and Germany voiced their concern at a Franco-German council of ministers meeting on Thursday [11 October] over the worsening security situation in Afghanistan, where both countries have significant troop contingents.

The two countries also urged the Sudanese government to agree to a UN force and the rebel movements to suspend their military activities in order "bring an end to the tragedy being endured by the people of Darfur".

"France and Germany express their concern at the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and reiterate that only a comprehensive response from the international community to the difficulties facing that country is experiencing will make it possible to escape the spiral of violence," said a statement released on Thursday by the Franco-German Defence and Security Council on the sidelines of the Franco-German Council of Ministers.

Eikenberry: Afghan mission focus changes

The Associated Press – 13/10/2006 - GOLDSBORO, N.C. — The Army general commanding the several thousand U.S. troops not under NATO control in Afghanistan said his task now centers around reconstruction and training Afghan military and police forces.

The soldiers also will focus on counterterrorism, operate U.S. prisons and interrogation centers, and hunt for Osama bin Laden, said Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry.

"Once I was asked if Afghanistan was the forgotten war," Eikenberry said Tuesday during a trip home to Goldsboro to visit his ailing father. "That's up to the American people, but one thing I'll assure you of, for the 20,000-plus troops on the ground, it is not a forgotten war."

In May 2005, after serving as the U.S. security coordinator in Afghanistan, Eikenberry assumed command of the U.S.-led coalition forces there.

There are about 8,000 U.S. troops outside of NATO control after Eikenberry last week transferred control of 12,000 American soldiers in Afghanistan to NATO commander British Gen. David Richards.

"This is a challenging military mission for NATO — the most challenging operation in its history," Eikenberry said. "But I believe the NATO alliance will be successful in Afghanistan." He said the key is rebuilding Afghanistan's infrastructure.

"The government of Afghanistan is still new," he said. "It's trying to stand itself up. You can imagine that after 30 years of brutal warfare this is a very slow process."

Pakistan foils coup plot - By Syed Saleem Shahzad (Asia Times 10.13.06)

KARACHI - A plot to stage a coup against Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf soon after his recent return from the US has been uncovered, resulting in the arrest of more than 40 people.

Most of those arrested are middle-ranking Pakistani Air Force officers, while civilian arrests include a son of a serving brigadier in the army. All of those arrested are Islamists, contacts in Rawalpindi, where the military is based, divulged to Asia Times

The conspiracy was discovered through the naivety of an air force officer who this month used a cell phone to activate a high-tech rocket aimed at the president's residence in Rawalpindi. The rocket was recovered, and its activating mechanism revealed the officer's telephone number. His arrest led to the other arrests.

Other rockets were then recovered from various high security zones, including the headquarters of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Islamabad.

According to Asia Times Online sources, more arrests can be expected, both military and civilian.

Several assassination attempts have been made on Musharraf since he took power in a bloodless coup in 1999, and in all attempts there was a connection with the armed forces, especially the air force. However, this time it appears that beyond the attack on the president, a coup against his administration was also planned.

This plot takes place amid major developments. While in the US, Musharraf, in a meeting with President George W Bush, once again pledged his commitment to the US-led "war on terror". He drew world attention to his belief that the real threat were the Taliban in Afghanistan, and not al-Qaeda. He subsequently agreed to terms with Washington for a massive joint operation against the Taliban.

Still in the US, Musharraf also claimed that former ISI officials were supporting the Taliban and he sent instructions to the director general of the ISI to check on top officials, including retired Lieutenant General Hamid Gul and retired Colonel Ameer Sultan (known as Colonel Imam). Gul is a former director general of the ISI and Ameer is considered as the founding father of the Taliban movement. He was Pakistan's consul-general in Herat in western Afghanistan when the Taliban emerged in the mid-1990s.

Musharraf also instructed that a list be compiled of all retired officers who had been involved in any significant intelligence operations and who were suspected of still being sympathetic towards the Taliban.

At the same time, he began to backtrack from an agreement Islamabad had made with the Pakistani Taliban in the Waziristan tribal areas for the release of al-Qaeda-linked people detained in Pakistan. Instead, more were arrested, including Shah Mehboob, a brother of former jihad veteran and member of parliament, Shah Abdul Aziz. Also arrested was a British-born suspected member of al-Qaeda, known as Abdullah.

"This is just one glimpse of upcoming events as a result of Musharraf's pro-American policies, which are in contrast to the thinking pattern of Pakistan's state institutions," said retired squadron leader Khalid Khawaja, a former ISI official who went to Afghanistan after his forced retirement and fought alongside Osama bin Laden against Soviet Russia in the 1980s. (Khawaja features on Musharraf's list mentioned above.)

"Musharraf always blamed the madrassas [Islamic seminaries] for extremism, but all plots against him or his government go back to the armed forces. But he still does not realize why this happens," Khawaja maintained.

"He says retired ISI officials are involved in supporting the Taliban. I say there is no difference between retired and serving ones. All of them have the same approach, mindset and conviction. The retired ones act freely, while the serving ones have some job constraints, but both think in the same way. The present move of a coup against Musharraf is the writing on the wall that if he continues with pro-American policies, he will continue to face problems like that," Khawaja said.

"These governments, whether it is Indian or Pakistani, compel their forces to work for their strategic requirements, and when a particular operation is over, they talk about peace and wash their hands of everything they have done in the past. For instance, the Kargil operation [the Pakistani incursion into Indian-administered Kashmir in 1999]. Pakistan initially called it an action by the 'mujahideen'. Six months later, they started awarding medals to their army officers for their performance in Kargil. What does it prove? It proves that governments are personally involved in everything, whether it is the Kargil operation or the Kashmiri resistance, and then they blame the mujahideen or whatever."

Khawaja said that whatever officials did during their service in the ISI, it was on state instructions, and if the state tried to punish these same officials, the result would be the type of events that are happening now.

It is all too apparent that Pakistan's head and tail are moving in opposite directions: while Musharraf is fully behind the "war on terror", the strategic institutions are reluctant to follow Islamabad's instructions.

This is not something new, but over the years Musharraf and hardliners within the army have been able to live with one another. Had a hardline ruler been in Musharraf's place, Western countries would have tightened the noose around Pakistan and its security institutions would not have been able to manipulate their support of the Taliban. Because of Musharraf, Western countries are not prepared to be tough on Pakistan, which allows the hardliners to continue their activities.

Musharraf is acutely aware of the undercurrents in the army, which historically draws its inspiration from Islam, and more recently from the attacks on the US of September 11, 2001, when anti-US sentiment also took root. Musharraf exploited this by convincing the West of his usefulness in keeping the army - "full of extremism" - under control, something that a democratically elected government could not do, he argued

This cozy arrangement, or uneasy truce, between Musharraf and hardline Islamists in the ranks is breaking down as the US is demanding that Musharraf do something about the resurgent Taliban. He has responded, as outlined above, by cracking down on Taliban supporters and sympathizers. These people, both in uniform and out, have in turn given their reponse: they are not prepared to throw away all the gains that have been made in Afghanistan.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief.

"Americans' presence foments insecurity, corruption" - Iranian minister

Text of report in English by Iranian news agency IRNA website - Tehran, 11 October: Iranian Interior Minister here on Wednesday [11 October] said Americans bring insecurity, corruption and an explosion of [a rise in] immigration with them wherever they step in.

Pointing to the US defence secretary's recent remarks that "security has been destroyed in Afghanistan and production of drugs has increased in that country", Mostafa Purmohammadi added that the US foments insecurity, corruption and immigration explosion in other countries.

On the failed projects of returning Afghans to their country, Purmohammadi stated that "I have not yet promised reporters on Afghans' return to their homeland, but the interior ministry is seriously following the project."

"Due to Iran's serious stance in this regard, I went to Geneva to confer with international organizations on Afghans presence in Iran." Purmohammadi said some 450,000 Afghans have officially immigrated to Iran, adding the Islamic Republic of Iran tries to monitor borders to prevent them from entering the country illegally.

The official noted that the number of Afghans in Iran is around 2 million of whom 950,000 people have been registered and others are illegally living here.

The number of Afghans who immigrate from their country have increased after the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the interior minister said.

Canada Troops Battle 10 - Ft Afghan Marijuana Plants

By REUTERS Published: October 12, 2006

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian troops fighting Taliban militants in Afghanistan have stumbled across an unexpected and potent enemy -- almost impenetrable forests of 10-feet (three meter) high marijuana plants.

General Rick Hillier, chief of the Canadian defense staff, said on Thursday that Taliban fighters were using the forests as cover. In response, the crew of at least one armored car had camouflaged their vehicle with marijuana.

``The challenge is that marijuana plants absorb energy, heat very readily. It's very difficult to penetrate with thermal devices ... and as a result you really have to be careful that the Taliban don't dodge in and out of those marijuana forests,'' he said in a speech in Ottawa.

``We tried burning them with white phosphorous -- it didn't work. We tried burning them with diesel -- it didn't work. The plants are so full of water right now ... that we simply couldn't burn them,'' he said. Even successful incineration had its drawbacks.

``A couple of brown plants on the edges of some of those (forests) did catch on fire. But a section of soldiers that was downwind from that had some ill effects and decided that was probably not the right course of action,'' Hillier said dryly.

One soldier told him later: ``Sir, three years ago before I joined the army, I never thought I'd say 'That damn marijuana'.''

New Afghan armed group declares jihad in east

Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajhwok news agency website - Torkham, 12 October: Qari Abdol Rahman Sayed, a purported spokesman for a so-called new armed group, announced joining the ongoing armed resistance against the Afghan government and the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan.

The purported spokesman said the new group would independently operate in the name of Jama'at al-Da'wah Al-Salafiyah Wa al-Qital in eastern parts of the country.

In a telephone call to Pajhwok's Peshawar correspondent, the spokesman said they had 90 fighters at the moment.

"We are going to start armed resistance against foreign forces and the government," said Rahman, adding: "The resistance will be carried out in eastern parts, especially the two provinces of Konar and Nurestan."

He said their so called jihad (holy war) was in the initial stage and it would gain momentum with the passage of time. Discussing the situation in eastern provinces, the man calling himself spokesman for the purported new jihadi group, said several armed groups, including Hezb-e Eslami and Arab fighters were already active in those areas.

Contacted for comments, Interior Ministry spokesman Zmaray Bashiri said he was not aware of the new jihadi group. At the same time, he said Afghan forces were fully capable of curbing any anti-state activity.

Afghan Senate leader announces boycott until corrupt officials sacked

Text of report by Afghan independent Tolo TV on 12 October - Sebghatollah Mojaddedi, Speaker of the Upper House and head of the Peace and Reconciliation Commission, said at a press conference today that he would stop cooperating with President Hamed Karzai unless he dismissed corrupt officials from the cabinet and other key posts.

[Correspondent] Mr Mojaddedi says he has repeatedly asked the president to dismiss corrupt officials from government posts, but his warnings have been ignored.

[Mojaddedi in Pashto and Dari] I asked him to sack corrupt officials, particularly from key posts. For instance, he should have dismissed the chief prosecutor. I have asked the president several times over the past few months to dismiss Mr Esmati, head of the Anti-Corruption Commission. This Mr Esmati was a key Parchami [an Afghan communist party in the 1980s]. He may have repented of what he has done, but he is an incompetent manager.

[Correspondent] Sebghatollah Mojaddedi says he will not go to his office for a month or two and will wait for reforms. However, he will cooperate with Karzai once these corrupt officials are dismissed.

[Mojaddedi] What I have suggested is for the sake of Afghanistan and not to satisfy my personal interests. But they [government officials] have failed to implement my suggestions. Our homeland is facing disaster and should that be the case, I will have to be accountable for any problems created. The people will ask why I have supported this man [Karzai]. The government would have fallen without my support. Nevertheless, we are not happy for the government to fall as this is not advantageous for the country.

Fellow officers back sacked Afghan airport police chief

Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajhwok news agency website - Kabul, 12 October: Kabul airport's security chief Gen Aminollah Amarkhel was suspended from his position overnight for what the attorney-general said was his defying of the law. However, Amarkhel said he was removed from his post and 'not suspended' in a conspiracy against him.

Recording his complaint, the security chief said he was illegally dismissed by the attorney-general Abdol Jabar Sabet with the approval of the interior ministry. Amarkhel termed his dismissal a reaction to his sacking of several corrupt officials who had links with drug-traffickers.

He said his termination indicated high-ups support for 'corrupt' officials. Earlier, Amarkhel too complained of receiving severe threats for his tough measures with smugglers. He bluntly said that some bigwigs were backing smuggling in the war-battered country. He said he had detained about 50 smugglers during his two-and-a-half-year tenure. "I'm well aware that a drugs mafia wants to kill me and has fixed a 0.1m bounty on my head and 0.5 [figures as published] for those who help in my dismissal," said Amarkhel.

However, Attorney-General Abdol Jabar Sabet told Pajhwok Afghan News Amarkhel was suspended for his defiance of the country's law. Sabet said Amarkhel even prevented the entry of an inspector sent by him to investigate a fake passport case.

Meanwhile, interior ministry's spokesman Zmaray Bashiri said Amarkhel was removed from his job. Fazl Rahman Chamkanai, a member of the parliamentary committee urged the interior ministry to provide official details of the case by Sunday. He said the assembly would take a decision after the committee had completed its inquiry.

Immediate boss of Amarkhel, Gen Haron Shah Asifi, lauded the role of his subordinate and regretted his termination. He said: "Gen Amarkhel was an honest and disciplined man."

Kabul crime branch police chief Alishah Paktiwal also criticized the dismissal of Amarkhel. "Whoever works with honesty in this government, his fate will be like Amarkhel's." He said he had got information that now he had to pay the price for his honesty.

Taleban said to free Pakistani engineers in Afghan south in return for ransom

Text of report by Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news agency - Kandahar, 12 October: The Pakistani engineers abducted by the Taleban in Afghan Kandahar Province have been freed.

Giving details, Director of Peace and National Reconciliation Commission in Kandahar Haji Agha Lalai told the Afghan Islamic Press [AIP] today: "The two Pakistani engineers abducted by the Taleban in Dand District of Kandahar Province three days ago were set free yesterday."

He added: "The two engineers worked for a road construction company. The company paid 60,000 dollars to the Taleban. The Taleban released the two Pakistanis in return."

It is worth mentioning that the two Pakistanis were abducted in Dand District on 8 October while they were conducting survey of a road. The Taleban have said nothing in this regard yet.

Afghan police arrest alleged Pakistani spy in capital

Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajhwok news agency website - Kabul, 12 October: Kabul police Thursday claimed to have arrested a Pakistani overnight on charges of spying for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the central capital.

Gen Alishah Paktiawal, crime branch chief in Kabul, told Pajhwok Afghan News they had netted the spy in the wee small hours last night. He said they had nabbed the outlaw in front of the defence ministry without any documents.

Though Paktiawal would not substantiate his spying, he said they had handed over the detainee to intelligence for further investigation. The detainee belonged to the Momand agency of Peshawar, the crime branch chief added. Paktiawal said the detainee had also given them information about his other two accomplices.

Naim Khan, Pakistan's press attache in Kabul, showed his unawareness about the detention of a Pakistani. Refuting such claims as baseless allegations, he said the police should level such charges against a country after thorough investigation.

Four Taleban arrested in eastern Afghanistan

Text of report by Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news agency

Paktika, 12 October: Four Taleban have been arrested during an encounter in Paktika Province.

The police chief of Paktika Province, Abdol Baqi Nuristani, reported to Afghan Islamic Press today: "A number of Taleban attempted to steal a vehicle belonging to an NGO in Mata Khan District of Paktika Province. But the police adopted immediate measures against them, as a result of which four Taleban were arrested."

He added: "The police also seized six weapons from the Taleban in this encounter." The Taleban have not yet commented on this incidence.

Pakistan arrests 17 suspected Taleban in southwest city

Text of report by Pakistani newspaper Daily Times website on 12 October

Quetta: Police arrested around 17 more suspected Talebans in two raids on rented buildings in the Pashtoonabad locality of the provincial capital on Wednesday [12 October], according to sources. Sources said the arrested men had been shifted to an unidentified location for interrogation. Maulana Noor Mohammad, an MNA and the chief of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam's (JUI) Quetta chapter, confirmed the arrests, but denied that the men had links with the Taleban.

Afghan official survives attempt on life

Text of report by Afghan independent Ariana TV on 12 October - [Presenter] The deputy governor of Takhar Province survived an attempt on his life today.

Security officials said that insurgents shot at his vehicle while he was on his way home from the north of the province. As a result, one of his bodyguards has been wounded, but he is not hurt.

[Correspondent] According to Aqa Nur Gintoz, the chief of the Security Department, unidentified insurgents shot at the vehicle of Abdol Wahid Faqirzada, the deputy governor of Takhar Province, at 0900 local time [1600 gmt] Thursday night. As a result, his bodyguard was wounded, but he was not hurt.

He also said his vehicle was attacked while he was driving from Khwaja Ghar District to Taloqan city.

[Chief of security] The insurgents shot at his vehicle between Bahark and Khwaja Ghar Districts. Fortunately, the deputy governor is alright. According to reports, the thieves have escaped.

[Correspondent] Faqirzada said that the people's enemies and the government opponents were behind the attack. He said there had been a series of such attacks on his life but the police had failed arrest the culprits.

Afghan chief prosecutor issues arrest warrant for Herat mayor

Text of report by Afghan independent Sada-ye Jawan Radio on 12 October

[Presenter] Afghanistan's Chief Prosecutor Abdol Jabar Sabet announced a warrant for the arrest of Herat Mayor Mr Mojaddedi in an exclusive interview with an Afghan TV channel. He claimed that the Herat mayor should be detained on charges of embezzling 3.5bn afghanis [approximately 70,000,000 dollars]. Here is Hekmatollah Hemat with further details:

[Correspondent] Afghan Attorney-General Mr Sabet said in an exclusive interview with Tolo TV that Herat Mayor Mr Mojaddedi should be arrested for embezzling 3.5bn afghanis. He said that Mr Mojaddedi had signed two contracts for the construction of a five-star hotel in Herat without informing or obtaining the approval of the cabinet. He said the mayor had also not followed the set rules for signing deals.

[Mr Sabet] There has been a case of embezzlement in Herat's Municipality. The amount embezzled was 3.5 afghanis. He signed two separate contracts for the construction of a five-star hotel without asking for the approval of cabinet members. He did not even follow the rules for making purchases and signing contracts.

[Correspondent] In the meantime, rejecting the Afghan Chief Prosecutor's claims, Mr Mojaddedi, who has been in Kabul for some time now, said in a phone interview with Sada-ye Jawan Radio that he had kept all the necessary legal documents concerning the construction of the Herat five-star hotel.

It is should be pointed out that a 20-member delegation from the Chief Prosecutor's office, who visited Herat to launch an investigation into the allegations of corruption in government departments, issued the arrest warrant for the Herat mayor on charges of embezzlement at a news conference a while ago. However, Herat Governor Sayed Hosayn Anwari appeared at a news conference and rejected the delegation's claim. He claimed that Mr Sabet's investigations were not carried out at the expected time.

Oil, gas reserves in Afghanistan 10 times more than predicted: survey

Xinhua 10/12/2006 - Recent surveys revealed oil and gas reserves in Afghanistan are 10 times more than previously predicted, a local newspaper quoted a senior official as saying on Thursday.

Afghan Mines and Mineral Minister Mohammad Ibrahim Adil said Wednesday that the former estimation carried out by Russians showed Afghanistan had 120 billion cubic meters of gas and over 15 million tons of oil, Outlook newspaper said.

The new statistic based on the U.S. Geological Survey, which was shown to him during his visit to the country, said the reserves of oil and gas in Afghanistan are 10 times more than Russians had predicated.

Adil said the new survey showed northern provinces and Herat in the west, Helmand in the south as well as Paktika in the east have most of the oil and gas resources.

During the visit, Adil met U.S. officials and investors to discuss technical support and investment in the field of oil and gas in the war-battery country.

Adil said the U.S. officials promised technical cooperation and equipping Afghan geological survey department with required tools, and U.S. investors also expressed eagerness for investment in Afghanistan. Privatization of the oil sites will soon begin in the northern Jowzjan province from where Russians had also excavated oil, he added.

Private equity fund CDC enters strife-torn Afghanistan 13 ottobre 2006 2.07

LONDON (Reuters) - A UK-backed private equity fund of funds business said on Friday it has put money into a fund dedicated to Afghanistan, seeing business opportunities in one of the world's poorest nations.

CDC Group, a government-backed emerging markets fund of private equity investments, said it has committed $5.8 million (3.1 million pounds) to the Afghanistan Reconstruction Fund, run by Acap Partners. CDC said this fund is the first private equity fund to be focused on the country.

The venture comes in what has been the bloodiest year in the mountainous country since U.S.-led coalition forces overthrew the Islamist Taliban government in 2001. Taliban rebels have carried out scores of suicide bombings against foreign and Afghan forces in the capital, Kabul, and across the nation.

Even so, Afghanistan has seen its economy expand by about 14 percent in the 2005-06 period, but the problem for businesses has been getting access to medium-term capital, CDC said.

"Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries with GDP per capita of less than $200. However, the economy has grown rapidly in recent years and there has been progress in reform of the banking sector, the issue of a new currency as well as the construction of roads," said Innes Meek, CDC portfolio director responsible for the Afghanistan Reconstruction Fund.

The Afghanistan fund so far has raised total commitments of $20.3 million. It has a pipeline of 200 potential investments with entrepreneurs seeking total investments of $380 million.

More than a third of the investments are linked to agricultural businesses, and almost a quarter are related to construction materials and construction, with 10 percent linked to metals, mining, transport and logistics.

Among the specific investments are a steel mill, a flour mill and a residential apartment development company.

The drive to expand Afghanistan's economy comes at a time when organisations such as the United Nations have warned about rising opium production in the country.

The country's president, Harmid Karzai, said last month the country faced a 10- to 15-year fight to eradicate opium production and wean poor farmers from growing the raw material for heroin.

Karzai said desperation after decades of war and poverty drove Afghan farmers to turn orchards and vineyards into fields of poppy, which now accounted for 30 percent of the country's economy.

CDC has assets totalling 1.6 billion pounds, targetting businesses in the poorer nations of the world, with a focus on Africa and South Asia. It has so far committed capital to more than 60 funds.

How to turn the tide in Afghanistan - Ahmed Rashid International Herald Tribune – Published: October 12, 2006

KABUL - NATO will fail to combat the growing insurgency in Afghanistan unless it shows the flexibility and determination to deal with three major problems simultaneously - all of which are the legacy of the American failure in Afghanistan over the past five years.

A few days ago NATO took over all military operations in Afghanistan from the Americans. But ordinary people in Kabul are fearful that the Taliban are on their way back to power and the international community does not have the power or desire to stop them.

To turn the tide in Afghanistan, NATO will have to act not just as a military alliance, but also as a political, economic and diplomatic alliance - something it has never done before.

Since the spring when 10,000 NATO forces took over in southern Afghanistan from U.S. forces, they have suffered three times the casualty rate of American soldiers, as a result of well-planned offensives by the Taliban.

Although NATO forces have killed hundreds of Taliban, there is no quick end to the insurgency in sight as the Taliban move skillfully from mass frontal attacks on NATO positions to one-man suicide attacks in Afghan cities.

Not surprisingly the public, Parliaments and news media in many NATO countries whose soldiers are dying in Afghanistan are up in arms, and demanding that their governments recall their troops.

In the past few days, Prime Ministers Tony Blair of Britain and Stephen Harper of Canada have said their forces will get the best equipment and support available (Canadian troops have suffered the heaviest casualties). But their people want answers to more obvious questions: Why are the Taliban back, when the United States repeatedly said they were finished? Why has Pakistan's military regime continued to allow Taliban leaders to live on its soil? Can NATO actually succeed?

Since 2001, the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan has failed to deploy enough peacekeeping troops, resources and reconstruction aid. NATO is only now rectifying that, spreading troops out to key areas in the south that have been hit by the insurgency and developing a more clear- headed reconstruction policy.

But NATO members have been slow to come up with the necessary financial aid and military equipment. Major reconstruction has yet to take place. Even in Kabul there is less electricity today than there was under the Communists in the 1980s.

In the long term, NATO forces in the south can only win if they are prepared to come in with enough aid and reconstruction to win over the alienated Pashtun tribes. NATO's military successes must become an economic lever that pries more money out of the European Union, the United States and the Muslim world.

The second problem is the Afghan government led by President Hamid Karzai, which has failed to come up with speedy and decisive decisions, promote good governance and clamp down on corruption and drug trafficking among its own ministers and officials.

As Afghans have become more and more critical of their own government, the Taliban find they can recruit extensively among disaffected people inside Afghanistan for the first time since 2001. NATO has to play a critical political role in resuscitating the Afghan government and giving it the confidence to perform better.

Third, NATO has to play a diplomatic role in convincing Pakistan to stop pursuing a dual-track policy of supporting the war on terrorism when it comes to capturing Qaeda leaders, but declining to do the same when it comes to the Taliban. Washington has tolerated this dichotomy for the past five years because it placed little importance on restraining the Taliban, but NATO cannot afford to do the same.

In a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Sept. 21, General James Jones, NATO's supreme commander, testified that the Taliban headquarters was in Quetta, Pakistan. Yet President George W. Bush did not even bring up Quetta when he hosted a dinner recently for Karzai and President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan.

The UN secretary general's latest report to the Security Council on Afghanistan says the Taliban leadership "relies heavily on cross-border fighters, many of whom are Afghans drawn from nearby refugee camps and radical seminaries in Pakistan." It lists five leadership centers for the insurgency. U.S. and NATO intelligence officials reportedly believe that at least three of those centers are based in Pakistan.

America's refusal to address this issue has convinced Afghans that the West is not serious about ending the Taliban insurgency and securing Afghanistan. NATO has to change this public perception if it is to succeed.

Ahmed Rashid is the author of "Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia."

Analysis: An al-Qaida sanctuary? Pt. 3

By Shaun Waterman - UPI Homeland and National Security Editor 12 Oct 06

More than a month after Pakistan inked a peace deal with local leaders in the restive tribal region straddling its frontier with Afghanistan, some NATO troops are trying the same tactic on their side of the border, redeploying to barracks and relying on tribal militias to keep Taliban insurgents in check.

The truces are part of a new "hearts and minds" strategy on both sides of the border, as coalition and Pakistani authorities attempt to engage local tribal leaders and woo them away from Taliban extremists.

But the NATO deal, in four northern districts of Helmand province, comes as evidence mounts that the Pakistani truce in Waziristan has failed to reduce cross-border infiltration by Taliban fighters looking to engage coalition troops in Afghanistan.

"The news is bad," said one Senate staffer following the issue, citing recent media reports that the U.S. military had seen a trebling of attacks on the Afghan side of the border.

"It is clear that the Taliban is not negotiating (with Pakistani authorities) to end the conflict, but to increase their leverage in the conflict," Husain Haqqani, director of the Center for International Relations at Boston University, told United Press International.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf insists that his deal, inked Sept. 5 between government officials and local figures described as tribal elders, mujahedin, students and Islamic scholars, is not with the Taliban, but it has been endorsed by Taliban military commanders in TV interviews.

Citing reports about the hasty closure of a Taliban office opened soon after the deal in Miran Shah, the capital of North Waziristan, Congressional Research Service analyst Alan Kronstadt told UPI that the Pakistani government had "a sensitivity to any signs that the Taliban are openly running an administrative infrastructure" there.

Nonetheless, questions about the peace agreement -- and the squabbling about the broader issue of cross-border security with his Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai -- overshadowed Musharraf's recent visit to the United States.

The diplomatic deal strung together between the two leaders at the state dinner in Washington -- a tribal councils known as a Loya Jirga will be convened on each side of the border before the year's end to try and chart a way forward -- is a classic exercise in kicking the can down the road, say critics.

Noted reporter and analyst Ahmed Rashid reported from Kabul last week that several cabinet ministers there were already warning that the loya jirga would be "manipulated by Islamabad for its own ends."

Some experts fear that U.S. policy in the region -- blinded by a total reliance on Musharraf and hamstrung by commitments of resources and attention elsewhere -- risks allowing the creation of a sanctuary where Islamic militants, perhaps including the senior leadership of al-Qaida, can use the fast-approaching winter months to re-group, and plan and train for new attacks, not just in Afghanistan, but in the United States or Europe too.

Afghan officials last week told reporters in Kabul that many of the 17 would-be suicide bombers they had recently apprehended had been trained in a camp near Data Khel in North Waziristan.

In the longer term, too, a viable security strategy for the border area, the never-tamed mountain fastness that is the home of fiercely independent Pashtun and other tribesmen, is seen as crucial for U.S. security.

"Until we transform the tribal belt, the United States is at risk," Barnett Rubin, of the Council on Foreign Relations, told a recent congressional hearing.

Counter insurgency strategists say it makes sense to try and win over tribal forces who might otherwise be recruited by the Taliban.

"The effort to engage the Taliban's tribal base makes sense," said Haqqani, "if at the same time you are degrading the ideological leadership through a military campaign."

The British general in command of NATO's forces in Afghanistan told The London Times at the weekend that he was withdrawing his troops from their remote fire-bases in four districts of Helmand province, part of the Taliban's southern Afghan heartland and across the border from Pakistan's restive Baluchistan, where the recent killing of a separatist leader has roiled local sentiment.

The paper reported that the deal followed a personal plea to Karzai by a delegation of tribal elders, who pledged that if allowed to appoint their own police chief and district officials, they would keep out Taliban militants.

According to The Times, the four northern districts of Sangin, Musa Qala, Nawzad and Kajaki will be guarded by new auxiliary militias made up of local tribesmen and paid by the coalition.

"These are the same people who two weeks ago would have been vulnerable to be recruited as Taliban fighters," it quoted Richards as saying.

Last week, GOP Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., told a reporter traveling with him in Afghanistan that some of the "people who call themselves Taliban" needed to be brought into the structures of government in Afghanistan.

Spokeswoman Amy Hall later clarified that he did not mean "Taliban fighters," but rather "tribes often targeted by Taliban recruitment."

Haqqani said there is not enough information in the public domain yet about the local leaders who signed the NATO deal in Helmand to make an assessment.

But the Pakistani truce in Waziristan, where border and internal checkpoints are manned by one of four different kinds of local constabulary or militia, is not an encouraging precedent.

Kronstadt said the U.S. military was monitoring the Waziristan situation closely. "There is concern about the capabilities of some of these militias," he said. "Some of them are just local boys," lightly armed, and may be unwilling to take on much better equipped and trained Taliban units.

Haqqani said the problem was that one end of the strategy was missing -- Pakistan was not engaging the Taliban's hard-core leadership militarily. "The deal (in Waziristan) keeps the ideological leadership intact," he said, adding that Musharraf's strategy was to "rely on the tribal leaders to keep it under control."

Both he and Kronstadt also pointed out that the traditional tribal power structures in the area had been undermined and infiltrated for 20 years by the constant presence of armed Islamic extremists.

"You can't just turn the clock back and hand power back to the tribal leaders," said Kronstadt. "Rural society is much more religiously conservative than it was" before the mujahedin came, said Haqqani. Karzai told reporters last week that 150 non-religious traditional leaders had been killed in North Waziristan recently. "The traditional secular Pashtun leadership of Pakistan has been undermined systematically and violently," he said.

Towards a peaceful Afghanistan – The News Int (Pak) - By Ikram Sehgal

Five years after naively occupying fixed defences along conventional lines and receiving the drubbing of their lives, mainly by B-52 bombers, the Taliban have re-grouped in the districts around their original base Kandahar and are resorting to classic hit-and-run tactics, the hallmark of guerrillas everywhere. During the 80s the Afghan mujhahideen outfought the combined might of the Soviet Union and a strong Afghan Army, multiple times more men, material and helicopters than that presently deployed by NATO.

The mujhahideen could then count on a constant flow of arms, equipment and other supplies from (and through) Pakistan. Every one of the nine mujhahideen factions had a Taliban contingent. After the Soviets left in 1989, the excesses of brutal warlords, the corruption of officials appointed by the Northern Alliance led by the Tajiks who controlled Kabul, the general anarchy prevailing in Afghanistan and the emergence of a charismatic one-eyed cleric in 1993-94 made the Taliban into a unified force.

Better armed and equipped, NATO's ground troops are far lesser in number than the Soviets and far more averse to taking casualties. The lack of combat experience and a failure to recognise ground realities condemns their present campaign to a recipe for failure. The Taliban this time do not have the access to the resources the Mujhahideen had in the eighties -- that dried up by the early nineties. But the Taliban have battle-hardened cadres and a constant supply of recruits, mostly from inside Afghanistan but some from Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan, with a smattering of Pakistanis as well.

On taking over as army chief, General Waheed Kakar, mandated the then ISI chief to stop all further interaction in Afghanistan. Such things cannot be turned off like a spigot; it took a couple of years before the termination of official flow of funds and material to the Taliban in the mid-90s. By 1999 whatever little influence the ISI wielded over the Taliban had waned, Osama bin Laden's influence over Mullah Omar increased proportionately. Osama was resented by most of the Taliban hierarchy but their loyalty and devotion to their leader overcame this. At the urging of the ISI some restrictions were placed on him and there is ample record of Osama's frustrations over this. Certainly Osama bin Laden and the ISI had no love lost between them. The fundamental mistake the west made was to club Al Qaeda with the Taliban instead of dealing with the two separately. About the same strategic blunder was made by Paul Bremer in disbanding the Iraqi Army in 2003.

Surprised by the Taliban response on the ground, the knee-jerk reaction of NATO's commanders, partly to hide their own shortcomings in the field, has been to blame the ISI. They have got it wrong; this sort of activity cannot remain hidden for long. This NATO policy of 'if you are not for us, you are against us' is bankrupt, Pakistan should tell NATO very candidly 'we are for ourselves' as are all sovereign nations. It is true that the Taliban are getting help from the Pakhtun areas in borders contiguous to Afghanistan, Pakistan is doing its best, at grievous cost in casualties, to stem this. There is no way to completely restrict tribals' traditional affinity and blood relationships. Enough weapons and ammunition are stored hidden within Afghanistan for many decades to come.

From time to time seriously wounded insurgents have been apprehended in Quetta in out-of-the way medical clinics. Logistics support emanating from Quetta and Peshawar is only possible in a surreptitious manner and has no official sanction, either from the ISI or the civil administration. Funds are certainly collected through voluntary donations and more should be done to restrict this. In a pragmatic reversal of policy because of the exigencies of circumstances, the Taliban, who had eradicated narcotics, have turned to opium farmers and smugglers as a major source for funds.

Notwithstanding widespread admiration for the fact that they disarmed everyone including the private militias of the warlords, and brought peace to a country racked by upheaval for more than two decades, Pakistan's intelligentsia and masses have never agreed with the Taliban on issues like their treatment of women. Bringing the rule of law to their society was heavily influenced by Taliban's own particular interpretation of Islam. Their treatment of women was obnoxious, it has no relevance to the emancipation of women as envisaged by Islam. Almost everyone in Pakistan decries Al Qaeda's actions, however association with the Taliban makes them grudgingly tolerable in local eyes. Only terrorists of a different ilk support them, a case of the adage: 'your enemy's enemy is your friend'. Military action increases the sympathy for the Taliban, translating into more volunteers to fight the 'oppressors'.

If the pragmatic agreement in FATA between the government and tribal chiefs is not blown apart by motivated and vested interests, it is a good beginning and can serve as a model. It incorporates tribal culture and traditions and invokes self-governance. Politically it is far potent than military initiatives. While the Karzai government has been critical of Pakistan for working with the Taliban, it itself has been engaged in a similar dialogue with tribal chiefs on the Afghan side of the border.

The 'joint' jirga idea is an exercise in frustration, it will allow unscrupulous tribal chiefs to play both sides while blurring the sanctity of the Durand Line as a frontier demarcation. A drastic change of attitude and direction is needed. That the British are also engaged in clandestine negotiations with the Taliban themselves is not surprising. The right route is to have constructive engagement with the Taliban to convince them to integrate into world society by compromising on some issues already in practice in other Muslim nations.

Both sides of the Durand Line are mostly barren and desolate; agriculture is sparse as a basis for eking out even a meagre existence. Bearing weapons, mostly for hire to the highest paymaster, is the only means of livelihood. It doesn't take an Einstein to work out that the economic initiatives must be given preference. The world can try military and political solutions for the next 100 years, these will only fetch makeshift peace unless an economic mechanism is put into place.

All Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) through Pakistan except for Afghan government's official import of food grains must stop. The proposed 'Reconstruction Opportunity Zones' (ROZs) is only a patchwork solution. The Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) must become a free trade area. Anything required by the Afghans, or even beyond Afghanistan, can be supplied from FATA and with their economic livelihood guaranteed the tribals will have a vested interest in keeping the peace on both sides of the Durand Line. With factories and shopping centres coming up, schools, colleges and hospitals will follow. The aim must be to eliminate the prevalent permanent economic deprivation which breeds anarchy.

The west has a vested interest in keeping peace in Afghanistan; a joint effort must be made with Pakistan to club together economic initiatives with political and military ones. Instead of spending billions of dollars fighting a war without end, why not spend a fraction of that on creating jobs?

The writer is a defence and political analyst.

Editorial: Pacification of the tribals - Dawn 13 Oct 06 (Pak)

- ON the face of it, Pakistan’s decision to involve tribal leaders in peacekeeping and anti-terrorism operations in North Waziristan seems to be getting accepted by the international community. Very few details of the deal are in the public domain. But there is no disputing the principle that relying solely on force is hardly the way to tackle a political problem, especially one with religious and tribal roots. From this point of view, British General David Richards’ statement following his meeting with President Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad is revealing. Much of what appeared in the British press prior to the Nato commander’s visit to Pakistan now looks unfounded. If his public statement is to be accepted, far from talking tough which, according to British press reports, was the purpose of his visit, the general said he had come to Pakistan to thank President Musharraf and Pakistan’s security agencies for “the excellent cooperation” in the war on terror in Afghanistan. Denying that the idea behind his visit was to “confront” Pakistan with the evidence of the ISI’s alleged support for the Taliban’s forays into Afghanistan, the British general, who is also commander of the International Security Assistance Force there, said that was not the purpose of his visit. His aim was to further develop cooperation between the two sides in tackling terrorism on the other side of the Durand Line. More significant, however, was the general’s remark after his talks with President Musharraf that most of Afghanistan’s problems were internal and emanated from the two decades of war in that country.

Pakistan is constantly being advised to “do more”. There is no other country in the world which has such a direct stake in a successful prosecution of the war on terror as Pakistan. Because of our blunders in the past, religious militancy, backed by some foreign powers, including the US and Saudi Arabia, acquired a base in Pakistan which it used effectively in the war against the Soviet Union during its occupation of Afghanistan. However, even after the Soviet withdrawal, militant parties, well-funded and well-armed, employed their political and military power

not only to wage partisan wars in Afghanistan but also to use it effectively within Pakistan to advance their political agenda.

During the latter half of General Ziaul Haq’s rule and beyond, some of these parties and their militant activities became a tool of Pakistan’s foreign policy. To apply the brakes on what has often appeared like a runaway train is not easy. Under the given circumstances, Pakistan adopted the right option in trying to pacify the tribal region. The tribal people have a history of fierce independence and resistance to central authority, and they have their own notions of hospitality and tribal honour. To ignore all this would be downright foolish. It thus decided to involve tribal elders in anti-terrorism operations, to seek their cooperation in preventing infiltration into Afghanistan and to ensure peaceful behaviour by foreign militants on pain of expulsion. But it’s still a tricky situation. General Musharraf has himself said he is unsure if this policy will succeed. One hopes that President Hamid Karzai has taken note of what Gen Richards said — that most of Afghanistan’s problems are home-grown, like poppy being a major source of funding for the Taliban. Given the complexities involved in the Afghanistan conflict, it is not the blame game but meaningful cooperation that can deliver results.

‘Pakistan not behind blasts’

Dawn - By Our Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Oct 12: Experts quoted in a US think-tank report have rejected claims that Pakistan’s intelligence agencies were involved in the Mumbai or London blasts.

The prestigious Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which has several former secretaries of state and other senior officials among its board members, notes that experts are sceptical about the validity of the recent British and Indian charges against Pakistan.

“The two nations have a history of finger-pointing, and … there is a tendency to exaggerate,” says the report while commenting on the Indian claim that the ISI planned the July bombing of the Mumbai commuter trains.

Endorsing an attack on India, reasons the report, would undermine President Pervez Musharraf’s own policy.

“Pakistan is genuinely trying to open up relations with India,” says Kathy Gannon, who covered the region for decades for the Associated Press.

Marvin G. Weinbaum, an expert on Afghanistan and Pakistan at the Middle East Institute, believes that the British report about ISI’s involvement in terrorist attacks makes “too broad a statement”.

Though Pakistan does offer safe haven to Kashmiri groups, and perhaps some Taliban fighters, the suggestion that the ISI is responsible for the 7/7 bombings of London’s mass transit system is “a real stretch,” Ms Gannon says.

Some experts say President Musharraf exercises firm control over his intelligence agency. “I do not accept the thesis that the ISI is a rogue organisation,” says William Milam, former US ambassador to Pakistan. “It’s a disciplined army unit that does what it’s told, though it may push the envelope sometimes.”

But other experts say that with a reported staff of 10,000, the ISI is hardly monolithic: “Like in any secret service, there are rogue elements,” says Frederic Grare, a South Asia expert and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment. He points out that many of the ISI’s agents have ethnic and cultural ties to Afghan insurgents, and naturally sympathise with them.

The report quotes President Musharraf, who addressed a CFR meeting during his recent visit to the US, as rejecting such allegations as ‘ridiculous.’

In May 2006, the British chief of staff for southern Afghanistan told The Guardian: “The thinking piece of the Taliban is out of Quetta in Pakistan. It’s the major headquarters,” The report notes.

In his address to the Council, Gen Musharraf responded to such accusations, saying “it is the most ridiculous thought that the Taliban headquarters can be in Quetta.”

The report, however, claims that the ISI has supported a number of militant groups in Kashmir and Afghanistan, some of which are on the State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organisations list.

CFR report quotes Ms Gannon as saying that the ISI’s previous support to these groups consisted of “money, weapons, and training”.

Mr Milam, however, says that “the ISI probably would not define what they’ve done in the past as terrorism.”

The report notes that Pakistani officials deny any current support for the Taliban, which the State Department does not deem a terrorist group but claims that the ISI has supported Afghan insurgents in the past.

Referring to President Musharraf’s recent statement that retired ISI agents may be helping Taliban fighters, the report says: “It suggests his government knows of at least some unsanctioned Pakistani support for the Afghan insurgency.”

The report, however, points out that Gen Musharraf’s acknowledgement also gives him ‘plausible deniability’ of any sanctioned assistance Pakistan is accusing of providing.”

Prof Weinbaum says Pakistan has sent ‘retired’ ISI agents on missions the government could not officially endorse. Some observers believe Pakistan’s duplicity is deliberate: “Musharraf’s been playing with us since day one,” Mr Grare says.

Mr Weinbaum claims that Pakistan has largely ignored Taliban fighters on its soil. “There are extremist groups that are beyond the pale with which the ISI has no influence at all,” he says. “Those are the ones they go after.”

The report quotes some experts as saying that Pakistan wants to see a stable, friendlier government emerge in Afghanistan and believes that an increased Taliban influence, especially in the government, might help achieve this target. “Supporting the Taliban also allows Pakistan to hedge its bets should the Nato coalition pull out of Afghanistan,” the report adds.

“Pakistan has two policies: one is an official policy of promoting stability in Afghanistan; the other is an unofficial

policy of supporting jihadis in order to appease political forces within Pakistan,” says Mr Weinbaum.

The report quotes Ms Gannon as saying that in Kashmir, militant groups serve as Pakistan’s “second line of defence and offence.”

[Disclaimer: The content of this news bulletin does not necessarily reflect the view or policy of the Afghan Government, unless specifically stated as such. The collection of articles and commentaries from Afghan and international news sources is provided for informational purposes, and accuracy of the news is the responsibility of the original source.]